Why the Robotics Sector Has Been Adjusting Recently

The robotics sector has been adjusting since early November, and the adjustment period has now exceeded a week. Initially, it was expected that the approval of Tesla’s compensation plan would lead to a certain increase in the robotics sector, but the market has further adjusted.Recent interpretations of the market can be summarized in two aspects:1.According to Tesla’s latest official plan, the original target of delivering 1 million humanoid robots by 2029 has been updated to: starting from September 3, 2025, a cumulative delivery of 1 million units by 2035. This makes the unlocking conditions relatively less stringent.Although the unlocking conditions are easier, the market’s interpretation suggests that future demand may not be as high as expected, and progress may not be as rapid as anticipated, leading to a necessary downward correction in the high valuations.2. A widely circulated survey report from Goldman Sachs, which visited 9 Chinese robotics supply chain companies, returned with a shocking report: not a single large order, yet companies are crazily expanding production—humanoid robot planned annual production capacity is as high as 100,000 to 1 million units, directly betting on the total global demand by 2035! (This resonates with Tesla’s unlocking conditions for the compensation plan).Here, we do not need to get entangled in the authenticity of the report, nor do we need to make a judgment on the total future demand for robots; we will discuss trading strategies purely from a trading perspective.In fact, looking at the hype path of robotics, all previous speculation has revolved around technological innovation, whether it is the initial harmonic reducer, the hollow cup motor and assembly of dexterous hands, or six-dimensional torque sensors and electronic skin, to later tendons and lightweight designs, interspersed with reducers and hand lead screws, all centered around innovation.This path of innovation has lasted nearly 3 years, and the market has recently been looking forward to the realization of orders, mainly anticipating Tesla’s orders. Therefore, the market has given high expectations to related industry chains such as Sanhua, Topband, and Rongtai, and when this expectation is discounted, the valuations of related targets will also be discounted.This is generally the reason for the recent weakness in the robotics sector. Without new news stimulation, the market is likely to seek a new reasonable valuation downwards, which may stabilize at this point or continue to search downwards, but before the realization of certain orders (mainly from Tesla), it is difficult for the robotics sector to move upwards.Therefore, the current strategy is: if you have a heavy position in robotics, you need to reduce your position and observe to avoid potential risks; if your position in robotics is not large, you can continue to wait and see, after all, there is a bright future after a tortuous process.The above content is merely a record of my thoughts on the market and does not constitute any investment advice.

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