Disclaimer:All articles and comments from this account are for record-keeping and sharing purposes only and do not constitute any investment advice. The stock market has risks; please invest cautiously.
In fact, the biggest hotspots in the market today come from two themes: AI and robots.
Following the development of robots, there has been speculation about drives, motors, and bearings.
Following the development of AI, the main areas include: servers, liquid cooling, and hardware, and in the future, it will certainly involve software, power, and more.
Humanoid Robots: Technology Not Mature:
There has already been a dedicated article written about the working principles of humanoid robots.
In simple terms, to realize the application of humanoid robots, we currently need to solve issues of precision, navigation, and stability.
From a theoretical standpoint, I believe that the development of humanoid robots will not see practical applications in the next ten years.
In scenarios where the working principles and supply companies overlap significantly, the application scenarios for autonomous driving are clearer, and theoretically, they will be implemented on a large scale before humanoid robots.
However, we have already seen that we are starting to correct the terminology of intelligent driving; it is now called assisted driving.
Intelligent driving is divided into levels L1-L5, with assisted driving defined between L2-L3. Since intelligent driving has not yet achieved large-scale implementation even at the partially fully autonomous level L4, L5 is even further away.
When the time comes for intelligent driving to be widely implemented, where all taxis are autonomous, it will be a better time to consider the maturity of humanoid robot technology!
Humanoid Robots: Lack of Application Scenarios:
Every time I consider whether a company is worth investing in, I think about its business model and core competitiveness.
I wonder, in what scenarios should humanoid robots be used?
Dancing? Racing?
If you say in industry: we already have vacuum cleaning robots; dishwashing is done by dishwashers; industrial applications have long had robotic arms; and for transportation, we have AGVs.
If you say transportation + operation, we can easily combine AGVs with robotic arms.
What scenarios require a humanoid form?
If you say military, then why not use unmanned aircraft for higher efficiency?
Why not unmanned tanks?
If it’s for off-road purposes, why not unmanned robotic dogs?
Quadrupedal robots are more mature and stable.
What scenarios absolutely require a humanoid form?
And what scenarios can be widely applied?
I can’t think of any!
Moreover, have you ever stayed in a hotel and received takeout? Unmanned delivery robots have already been realized.
If we must insist on humanoid, the only scenario I can think of is for welcoming guests!
But in reality, humanoid robots are more expensive; it would be better to hire a young and attractive college student, and people would be more willing to pay for that.
As for emotional companionship, if you seek emotional support from a machine, it’s better to raise a cat that can snuggle in your arms every day, soft and warm.
It’s even better to play on your phone and find an online romance, which can give you a bit of love and hope.
Seeking companionship from a machine is essentially just looking for a voice app!
Robots Lack Core Competitiveness:
I took a look at some assets related to humanoid robot concepts, and they all have very low gross margins, operating in a highly competitive field. In fact, if this were truly a high-tech industry, it would be more reasonable for the gross margins to be very high.
A competitive field where no one can make money is like the new energy sector; when it gets competitive, most companies cannot make a profit.
But AI is not a scam:
You might think that I have mentioned so much to make you give up on speculating on hotspots.
But that’s not the case; I just want you to understand that humanoid robots have no potential in the foreseeable future.
However, AI does!
Almost everyone around me is equipped with AI, and everyone is using it for work and daily tasks.
Moreover, we are even willing to pay to use AI. I specifically looked into it: the monthly fee for ChatGPT is around 140, and I found that many of my colleagues and friends are spending this amount every month.
The average annual expenditure on AI is already close to 2k. And this proves that AI has genuinely brought productivity!
Therefore, I believe that the big players underestimate AI and its future potential; AI is far more promising than imagined!
But not domestic AI:
Anyone who has used both can compare the differences in user experience between domestic AI and foreign AI.
This gap is so significant that even if it’s free, people are unwilling to use it; they still have to pay and use others’ services.
Why?
The core competitiveness is truly insufficient!
This is also the reason why I have been hesitant to take action, and it’s something I have often mentioned: there are no phenomenal products in domestic AI; the only one I can think of is Nanshan Pizza Hut.
Aside from that, where is the future?
I am more inclined to believe that domestic AI will land in specific application areas, while large-scale general AI will likely resemble the relationship between Google and Baidu, with the end result being that we can only use Baidu.
As for those who say we will definitely surpass the other side, I believe they have not truly experienced the differences and speeds between the two.
So this is why our speculation is concentrated in the hardware sector; I estimate that software will also have a large-scale demand for implementation in the future.
In the general field, it’s hard to determine who will win aside from Pizza Hut, but in niche areas, it’s likely to be the companies that hold digital information in various industries!
At least these companies hold the data and the core of large models, giving them a first-mover advantage!
Therefore, I am determined to bring talent to AI!
To the digital giants in various vertical industries!
End of Article
Disclaimer：This article is a personal record, and is for learning and communication purposes only; the author does not bear any responsibility for anyone’s investment decisions. The stock market has risks; please invest cautiously.