Friends know that I have a habit when it comes to stock trading – I love to “dig up old accounts.” Back in 2018, during the reshuffle of the industrial robot industry, many domestic companies were beaten badly by foreign capital due to technological shortcomings, with stock prices halving repeatedly. At that time, I pondered that this industry is too deep; without real skills, it’s hard to withstand the pressure.Now looking back, the tailwind from new energy vehicles has brought industrial robots into a new spotlight. A few days ago, I came across Ruisong Technology’s financial report, which showed a 76% drop in net profit for 2024, yet the stock price suddenly surged at the end of April. What secrets lie behind this? We need to dissect it thoroughly.
1. Industry Track: New Energy Vehicles Supporting Half the Sky
Industry Growth ProspectsRuisong Technology derives 60%-70% of its revenue from the new energy vehicle supply chain, with major clients like BYD and GAC Aion. Last year, new energy vehicle sales exceeded 9 million units, directly boosting the demand for industrial robots. However, there is a contradiction here – car manufacturers are aggressively cutting prices to reduce costs and increase efficiency, resulting in Ruisong’s gross profit margin hovering around 20%, nearly half that of foreign competitors.
Technological AdvancementsIn the past two years, the hottest term in the industrial robot industry has been “intelligentization.” Last year, Ruisong spent 4.34 million to acquire the parallel robot technology from Japan’s PCO, which can achieve micron-level precision in the 3C electronics and semiconductor fields, filling a domestic gap. However, to be honest, compared to Fanuc and ABB, Ruisong’s technological reserves still lag behind. It’s like martial arts novels where others practice “Nine Yang Divine Skill,” while we are still practicing “Taizu Long Fist.”
Competitive DynamicsDomestic robot companies are staging a “comeback script.” In 2024, the domestic market share exceeded 50% for the first time, but the status within the industry is severely polarized: Huichuan Technology has a market value of 180 billion, while Ruisong only has 3.9 billion. Even more critically, the industry has become so “inwardly competitive” that even foreign giants are struggling – Yaskawa’s gross profit margin has dropped from 44% to 8.9%. Ruisong is caught in the middle, needing to fend off price cuts from the “four major families” while avoiding price wars with domestic peers.
2. Company Fundamentals: Left Hand Acquisition, Right Hand Contraction
R&D InvestmentRuisong’s R&D investment ratio has been below 5% for the past few years, which is 3 percentage points lower than the industry average. This is like farming without fertilizing; while it can barely sustain, achieving a bountiful harvest is extremely difficult. However, their acquisition of PCO’s technology last year is a highlight, equivalent to spending a small amount to buy a ticket to a “high-level copy.”
Product InnovationRuisong’s “core competency” is automotive welding robots, but they have clearly been expanding into new fields in recent years. They have developed automated production lines for photovoltaic components and plan to enter semiconductor testing. This strategy of “shining in the East while dim in the West” resembles the martial arts novel’s “mutual combat technique” – whether they can pull it off depends on market acceptance.
Market Penetration RateThe penetration rate of industrial robots in manufacturing is still below 10%, but in the new energy vehicle sector, it has already exceeded 30%. Ruisong’s layout in the new energy vehicle track seems to be a good bet, but the problem is that there are many experts in this field. It’s like selling vegetables in a market; you need to be loud, quick, and know how to shout, or you might easily get pushed into a corner.
Industry Policy SupportThe government provides substantial support for high-end manufacturing, including tax reductions and subsidies. However, for small players like Ruisong, the cake they can share is limited. It’s like a group of people grabbing red envelopes; those who are quick can grab the big ones, while those who are slow can only pick up some change.
3. Financial Data: The Truth Behind the Plummeting Net Profit
Net Profit Growth RateIn 2024, Ruisong’s net profit dropped from 48 million to 11.44 million, mainly due to a decrease in orders and impairment provisions. It’s like running a restaurant; originally able to sell 1,000 bowls of noodles a day, suddenly only able to sell 500 bowls, and still having to pay for expired ingredients. However, on the bright side, their gross profit margin has been rising for three consecutive years, indicating effective cost control.
Supply and Demand RelationshipThe sudden surge in Ruisong’s stock price at the end of April may be related to market expectations. Some are betting on favorable policies, while others are betting on industry recovery, but the trading volume was only 40,000 hands, indicating significant capital divergence. It’s like a gambling game; some bet big, some bet small, and in the end, who wins is still uncertain.
4. Risks and Opportunities: Easy to Dodge a Direct Attack, Hard to Guard Against a Hidden Arrow
Supply Chain DisruptionThe core components of industrial robots, such as reducers and servo motors, rely 60% on imports. If international trade frictions escalate one day, Ruisong’s production line might have to “stop working.” It’s like cooking without salt; no matter how skilled the chef is, they can’t make a good dish.
Industry Profit Margin TrendThe profit margins across the entire industry are declining, and Ruisong is no exception. In 2024, their ROE is only 0.48%, lower than keeping money in the bank. It’s like running a supermarket; with increasingly thin profit margins and various expenses to handle, it could easily turn into “working for the landlord.”
5. Future Outlook: Where is the Path to Breakthrough?
Industry ConsolidationThe industrial robot industry is currently like the Spring and Autumn Warring States period, with small companies everywhere. In the future, there will definitely be a situation where big fish eat small fish; Ruisong will either be acquired or need to “cultivate internal skills.” It’s like martial arts novels where a sect either gets absorbed or becomes the new leader of the martial arts world.
International CompetitionRuisong’s overseas revenue accounts for less than 10%, while Huichuan and Estun have already made inroads into the global market. It’s like farming; if you only guard your own small plot of land, it’s hard to make a fortune.
Ruisong Technology is like a young hero just entering the martial arts world, full of courage and ambition, but lacking internal strength and experience. The tailwind from new energy vehicles can give it a boost, but whether it can become the “light of domestic products” depends on three things:
- Technological Breakthrough: Whether the acquired PCO technology can be converted into tangible orders;
- Market Expansion: Whether new fields like semiconductors and photovoltaics can open up new opportunities;
- Cost Control: Whether it can maintain profits amidst industry “inward competition.”
Disclaimer: This article is a personal diary and does not constitute investment advice. All opinions expressed in the text represent personal views and do not have any guiding significance.