Review Notes on 901: Allwinner Technology (SZ300458) – The Invisible Champion of Smart Chip Design

And let the white deer roam between the green cliffs

Although chips are small, they can drive the era of the Internet of Everything; despite high valuations, they carry the dream of domestic substitution.

Allwinner Technology (SZ300458)

1. Company Business: The Invisible Champion of Smart Chip Design

Allwinner Technology was established in 2007 and is headquartered in Zhuhai, Guangdong. It is a fabless semiconductor company focused on the design of smart application processor SoCs (System on Chips), high-performance analog devices, and wireless interconnect chips. In simple terms, it acts as the “brain” designer for smart devices but does not build factories itself; instead, it hands over the designed chip blueprints to foundries like TSMC and SMIC for production.

Its products have a wide range of application scenarios, almost covering every corner of AIoT (Artificial Intelligence of Things):

• Smart Terminals: Tablets (once hailed as the “King of Tablet Chips”), smart speakers (like Tmall Genie and Baidu’s smart home), and smart home appliances.

• Automotive Electronics: Smart cockpits, digital dashboards, AR-HUDs (Augmented Reality Head-Up Displays), etc., have passed pre-installation certification from car manufacturers like BYD and Geely.

• Industrial Control: Industrial gateways, PLCs (Programmable Logic Controllers), 3D printers, etc., with clients including leading industrial automation companies like Inovance Technology and Estun.

• Emerging Fields: AI glasses, AI toys, robots (like vacuum robots and quadruped bionic robots), and smart security (like smart doorbells and network cameras).

2. Core Advantages and Growth Potential

1. Core Products and Technologies: The company’s core technologies include ultra-high-definition video encoding and decoding, multi-core CPU/GPU/AI heterogeneous integration, and low-power design (such as the CoolFlex intelligent power management system). Its H series chips are used for smart projectors and TV boxes, the T series is automotive-grade chips, the R series focuses on low-power AI applications, and the V series specializes in smart vision.

2. Upstream and Downstream Enterprises: The upstream mainly consists of wafer foundries (like TSMC and SMIC) and packaging testing factories; the downstream includes various solution integrators and brand manufacturers, with a high-quality customer base including industry leaders like Xiaomi, Baidu, Alibaba, BYD, Roborock, and Ecovacs.

3. Moat and Advantages:

• High Integration and Cost-Effectiveness: Provides “Turn-Key” one-stop solutions, greatly reducing development difficulty and costs for customers, making it highly favored by consumer electronics brands.

• Technical Accumulation and Ecosystem: Has deep accumulation in video processing technology and provides a complete software development kit (SDK), actively embracing the open-source ecosystem (like OpenHarmony and RISC-V).

• Diversified Layout: Successfully expanded from consumer electronics to automotive electronics and industrial control, which are high-demand and high-value fields, opening up new growth spaces.

Future Growth Potential: Future growth points lie in automotive intelligence (increased penetration of smart cockpits), edge AI (computing power moving to the device side), RISC-V ecosystem (collaboration with Alibaba’s T-Head), and robots in emerging markets continuing to expand.

3. Market Concept Tags

The market has given Allwinner Technology a rich set of concept tags, which is one of the reasons it attracts significant capital attention:

#Domestic Chip Substitution, #Automotive Chips, #AIoT, #RISC-V, #Robot Concept, #Edge Computing, #HarmonyOS Concept (compatible with OpenHarmony), #Smart Cockpit.

4. Financial Health and Delisting Risk

• Debt Repayment Ability and Debt Ratio: The company’s financial condition is very healthy. As of the end of 2024, the debt-to-asset ratio is only 15.58%, which is extremely low. The scale of interest-bearing debt is very small (short-term loans only 105 million yuan, no long-term loans), with ample cash funds of up to 1.74 billion yuan, ensuring liquidity. The accounts receivable turnover days are only 7.57 days, indicating strong bargaining power in the supply chain and quick payment collection.

• Delisting Risk: From the financial indicators, the company currently has no delisting risk. Revenue continues to grow, with a profit of 167 million yuan achieved in 2024, and all financial indicators are stable.

5. Valuation Assessment and Asset Value

• Current Market Value: As of the close on September 1, 2025, the company’s total market value is 43.328 billion yuan [data provided by user].

• Asset Value: The mid-2025 report shows that the company has total assets of 3.712 billion yuan, with a high proportion of liquid assets such as cash and trading financial assets. Fixed assets are 110 million yuan, accounting for a small proportion of total assets, consistent with the characteristics of a fabless light-asset operation model.

• Shell Resource Value: As a chip design company listed on the Growth Enterprise Market with core technologies and a stable customer base, its “shell” value is already considerable, but the more significant value lies in its business growth potential and industry position.

• Historical Percentile and Reasonable Valuation: The current company’s dynamic price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) is as high as 207.47 times [data provided by user], indicating that the valuation level is undoubtedly at a historical high. This fully reflects the market’s strong expectations for its future high growth. According to predictions from several brokerage reports:

• Shanxi Securities predicts a net profit attributable to the parent company of 365 million yuan in 2025.

• Huachuang Securities predicts a net profit attributable to the parent company of 326 million yuan in 2025.

• Taking a neutral expectation, assuming a net profit of 350 million yuan in 2025, assigning a 60-80 times price-to-earnings ratio (considering the high-growth track), the corresponding reasonable market value range is approximately 21 billion to 28 billion yuan. The current market value has significantly exceeded this range, indicating a clear valuation overhang.

6. Shareholder Background and Institutional Trends

• State-Owned Background: According to public information, the company has no actual controller, with the largest shareholder being individual Zhang Jianhui (holding 8.72%), and there is no obvious state-owned background among the top ten shareholders.

• National Team and Social Security Fund: As of the end of 2024, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited (Shenzhen Stock Connect) holds 5.58% of the circulating shares, representing the favor of northbound funds. The periodic reports do not clearly show the presence of the national team (CITIC, Huarong) or social security funds, but it cannot be ruled out that they hold shares through multiple accounts.

• Management Trends: In June 2025, the company released 2.257 million restricted shares due to the implementation of an equity incentive plan. Recently, there has been no significant reduction or increase in holdings by major shareholders. In terms of pledges, the overall pledge rate of the company is extremely low, and the risk is controllable.

7. Investment Strategy: Buy and Sell Point Reference

• Reasonable Valuation and Buy/Sell Price: Based on the aforementioned valuation analysis, the current stock price (52.50 yuan) has significantly overdrawn future performance, and the risk of chasing high is enormous.

• Suggested Accumulation Buy Price: If it can pull back to the 30-35 yuan range (corresponding to a market value of about 250-290 billion yuan), the safety margin will be higher, making it worthy of long-term investors’ attention.

• Take Profit Sell Price: For current holders, the current price level can already consider taking profits in batches. Aggressive investors may set 65-70 yuan as a warning level, ready to cash in on profits at any time.

• Current Price Percentile: From the 52-week range (15.31 yuan – 55.90 yuan) [citation: data provided by user], the current stock price is at an absolute historical high (percentile over 90%).

8. Future Trend Projection

1. Short-Term (1-3 months): The stock price is at a historical high, with intense emotional speculation. Positive news (such as breakthroughs with new automotive clients, quarterly reports exceeding expectations) may stimulate the stock price to rise, but negative news (market adjustments, sector rotations, performance below expectations) can easily trigger significant corrections. Increased volatility is highly likely.

2. Medium-Term (6-12 months): The trend will depend on the fulfillment of the 2025 full-year performance. If it can reach or exceed the brokerage forecast of 350 million yuan net profit and digest part of the valuation through high growth, the stock price may maintain high-level fluctuations. If performance is disproven, it will face the risk of Davis Double Kill.

3. Long-Term (1 year or more): The company is in the golden track of domestic substitution and AIoT intelligence, with a clear long-term growth logic. The real investment value needs to wait for a more cost-effective entry price, or to digest the current high valuation over time.

In summary, Allwinner Technology is a high-quality domestic chip design company with a broad track, but its current stock price has crazily overdrawn the growth expectations for many years to come. For rational investors, it is essential to maintain clarity and remember the investment principle of “a good company also needs a good price.” Patience in waiting for a reasonable price from the market is the key to success.

“Qingya Caolu: Observing the Stock Market”

And let the white deer roam between the green cliffs,

The path of stock trading is like understanding Zen.

Clouds rise and fall, observing the ups and downs,

Long-term holding and compound interest reveal the green mountains.

——And the heavens and earth are the furnace, creation is the work; Yin and Yang are the charcoal, and all things are copper. May all friends in this long journey of the rivers and lakes carry righteousness, bear freedom, laugh at the clouds, and go together to the mountains and seas.

Disclaimer:

1. This public account is only a record of personal review notes, and all content in this article is for sharing and communication purposes only, not constituting any actual operational advice. Investors trading based on this are at their own risk, and profits and losses are their own responsibility;

2. Investment involves risks, and trading should be cautious. Please be responsible for your investment decisions.