1. From “Car Show” to “Production Line Ready”: The Transformational Milestone of Optimus V3
In September 2025, Tesla confirmed for the first time at a closed-door meeting at its Texas Gigafactory that the hardware freeze version of Optimus V3 will be finalized in October, publicly showcased in November, and small-scale trial production will commence in December. Compared to the prototype that “staggered and waved” two years ago, the V3 adds three major hard indicators: 1. Over 40 joints throughout the body, with all rotary, linear, and finger actuators developed in-house, achieving a 35% increase in torque density, with a cost cap set at $20,000; 2. 17 active degrees of freedom in one hand, utilizing a slotless hollow cup motor and metal tendons, capable of performing sub-millimeter operations such as threading, valve twisting, and plugging in wires; 3. Introduction of the Dojo D1 Edge inference chip, with local computing power increased fivefold compared to V2, supporting offline voice interaction and visual relocalization without the need for an external industrial computer. Musk has clearly stated in internal KPIs: 50,000 units by 2026, 1 million units by 2027, and a long-term goal of 10 million units per year. For the supply chain, this means “Q4 2025 = Tesla Model 3 in 2018”, with the industry set to replicate the steep curve of electric vehicles from 0 to 1 to 10.
2. Further Breakdown of Supply Chain Value: Three Incremental Links Most Dependent on Orders
The BOM (Bill of Materials) cost for Optimus V3 is approximately 14,000 RMB (estimated based on a $20,000 end price and 30% supply chain share), where the largest leap in value comes not from traditional servo motors, but from three types of precision components that the automotive supply chain has never dealt with: 1. Planetary roller screw: the only solution for linear actuators, with 8-10 units per vehicle, single unit price converging to 800 RMB, with market space jumping from 300 million RMB in 2024 to 14 billion RMB in 2027, a compound annual growth rate of 190%. 2. Six-dimensional force sensors: one for each ankle and wrist, four per machine, with a single unit price dropping to 6,000 RMB, still 30 times that of industrial single-axis force sensors, with the market expected to reach 12 billion RMB by 2027. 3. Hollow cup motors + micro planetary reducers: standard for dexterous hands with 17-40 sets, single set price converging to 250 RMB, with shipments expected to exceed 300 million units by 2027, equivalent to recreating a market for “smartphone vibration motors”. Those who can first pass Tesla’s PPAP (Production Part Approval Process) will hold the largest order entry for the next five years.
3. Progress of the A-share “Seven Swordsmen”: Sample Submission → Order Locking → Going Overseas, Completed in Three Steps
1. Mingzhi Electric: Exclusive supplier of hollow cup motors for dexterous hands, with 92% efficiency, costing 1/8 of Switzerland’s Maxon, with mass production in Mexico, and expected orders to cover 60% of future revenue over the next two years by 2025. 2. Luyuan Harmonic: 24% domestic market share for harmonic reducers, with precision of 1 arc minute comparable to Harmonic Drive, receiving a 12,000 unit order from Tesla in Q1 2025, amounting to 216 million RMB, with Mexican production capacity expected to expand to 590,000 units by the end of 2025. 3. Shuanghuan Transmission: 18% domestic market share for RV reducers, with planetary roller screw lifespan of 12,000 hours, certified by Tesla sample parts, with robot business revenue expected to exceed 800 million RMB in 2025. 4. Sanhua Intelligent Control: Torque density of 45Nm/kg for rotary + linear actuator assemblies, with costs 35% lower than overseas, investing 5 billion RMB to build a super factory for robot actuators in Shaoxing, expected to start production by the end of 2025. 5. Top Group: Simultaneously developing rotary joints for cars and robots, with a process reuse rate of 60%, has submitted samples to Tesla, planning an annual production capacity of 1 million sets. 6. Keli Sensor: Six-dimensional force sensor with precision of 0.1N, single price of 6,000 RMB, locking in 60% of 2025 capacity during the small batch phase, verified under extreme conditions. 7. Jiangsu Beiren: Exclusive supplier of ceramic bearings for dexterous hands, positioning accuracy of ±0.01mm, locking in 35% of 2025 capacity; also investing 1.85 billion RMB to build a planetary roller screw base, expected to start production by the end of 2025. These companies share the common feature of having entered Tesla’s automotive supply chain, possessing overseas production capacity or under construction, with capital expenditure peaks occurring in 2025-2026, synchronized with the ramp-up of Optimus production capacity.
4. Investment Rhythm: From “Market Dream Rate” to “Market Order Rate”, then Switching to “Market Share” – Q4 2025 – H1 2026: Finalization → Order Locking, the sector is in the “Market Order Rate” phase, with order announcements being more important than financial reports, and core targets having high valuation tolerance. – H2 2026 – 2027: Scale mass production, focusing on yield and gross margin, companies with automated production lines and overseas factories will widen cost gaps, entering the “Market Share” realization period. – After 2028: Hardware cost reduction will slow, software and service fees will open a second growth curve, focusing on platform companies with AI algorithm reserves or robot complete machine brands. At the current moment, the first main line is “certainty targets that have secured orders and possess overseas bases”, such as Mingzhi Electric, Luyuan Harmonic, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Keli Sensor; the second main line is “low domestic substitution rate + doubling of value”, such as planetary roller screws (Shuanghuan Transmission, Jiangsu Beiren), six-dimensional force sensors (Keli Sensor, Ampertron), and micro reducers (Zhaowei Electromechanical).
5. Risk Warning
1. Production rhythm not meeting expectations: If V3 is delayed until after 2026, the capital recovery cycle for the supply chain will be extended by two years; 2. Sudden changes in technology route: Tesla may shift to direct drive motors or integrated joints, compressing demand for third-party reducers and screws; 3. Rapid cost reduction: If BOM annual reduction exceeds 15%, high-cost capacity will be rapidly cleared; 4. Overseas policies: Tariffs in Mexico and the US Entity List may affect the profitability of overseas factories.
6. Conclusion: Seize the Golden Window Driven by “Orders + Going Overseas”
Optimus V3 is not only a physical carrier of Tesla’s AI capabilities but also represents a new round of “curve overtaking” in China’s high-end manufacturing following new energy vehicles. In the fourth quarter of 2025, when the three elements of “technology convergence + order landing + overseas factories” are simultaneously realized, investors should prioritize laying out the “Seven Swordsmen” that have entered Tesla’s supply chain, secured production capacity, and possess bases in Mexico/Southeast Asia, to share in the explosive dividends of humanoid robots from 1 to 100.