This article is a summary of the blogger’s daily post-market news and personal trading records. The blogger also incurs losses; the stock market carries risks, so please do not follow blindly!
01Summary in One Sentence
Pay attention toAIhardware transitioning toAIapplications opportunities; December interest rate cuts may increase; Changxin’s new products.
02News Summary
(1) Google’s newly releasedGemini3model exceeds expectations, showing significant advantages overGPT5. Google’s market value is3.5 trillion USD, with annual free cash flow reaching70 billion USD. OpenAI has raised a total of60 billion USD in financing, with a valuation of500 billion USD. Once investors determine thatOpenAI‘s technological advantage in large models is no longer significant, OpenAI‘s valuation will shrink, making further financing much more difficult, leading to a vicious cycle. In comparison to the early internet era, hardware companies like Cisco and Intel were the highest valued firms, but as the internet matured and became ubiquitous, companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, andMeta became the highest valued firms, far surpassing hardware companies’ valuations.AI hardware can only make significant profits when companies invest heavily in hardware during the early stages of AI development. Currently, AI hardware has been heavily speculated, while AI applications have already adjusted sufficiently. The main focus of AI is expected to gradually shift fromAI hardware toAI software. I am particularly focused on Yidian Tianxia.
(2) Federal Reserve’s Williams stated that given the current policy is slightly tight, he still believes there is room for interest rate cuts in the near future. Inflation progress has stagnated, but it is expected to reach2% by2027. Traders have raised the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December to over50%. As a result, US stocks rebounded on Friday night.
(3) Changxin Storage released newDDR5 products with a maximum speed of8000Mbps, and a maximum chip capacity of24Gb. They also launched seven module products covering the entire field of servers, workstations, and personal computers, as well as the latestLPDDR5X mobile memory with a maximum speed of10667 Mbps and a maximum chip capacity of16Gb. These two product series rank among the top tier in the industry in terms of speed and capacity, marking that domestic storage chips have the technical strength to compete with international leading manufacturers.
03Analysis of Market Trends
Shanghai Composite Index: The trend aligns with last week’s analysis, showing a three-sell pattern that has broken below the thirty-minute level’s center. Currently, there is no divergence in the three-sell pattern at the thirty-minute level, but the good news is that divergence may appear at the five-minute level. Based on support levels, the downward movement is limited to the thirty-minute level’s major line, with strong support at the lower edge of the thirty-minute level’s previous center at3760, which has strong support. The downward space is less than a hundred points, and reaching3760 will at least have a thirty-minute level rebound. If the rebound can return to the previous center, it will complete the thirty-minute level center expansion, forming a daily level center. Currently, the best scenario is to maintain a fluctuating structure to create a daily level center, with no immediate breakthrough opportunities, only a rebound from the center’s bottom.
ChiNext Index: The trend aligns with last week’s analysis, currently undergoing a daily level adjustment. The daily level center is being completed, and the thirty-minute level is currently in a similar three-sell downward acceleration phase, with no signs of divergence. The main support downward is around2820, and this100 point space must complete a thirty-minute level divergence or a five-minute level divergence. After reaching this area, the rebound strength should be observed. If the rebound is weak, the possibility of forming a thirty-minute level downward trend cannot be ruled out.
