The robotics industry is transitioning from concept to reality, moving from laboratories to industrialization. Driven by the dual forces of global manufacturing transformation and demographic changes, this strategic emerging industry demonstrates clear investment value and vast development prospects.
Industry Status: Certainty of Growth and Structural Opportunities
Let the data speak for itself. The global robotics market is expected to reach $235 billion by 2025, with China accounting for nearly 40%. More notably, in the first half of this year, China’s robotics industry revenue grew by 27.8% year-on-year, with industrial and service robot production increasing by 35.6% and 25.5%, respectively.
This growth is not a short-term phenomenon. According to industry forecasts, the annual compound growth rate of China’s robotics industry is expected to remain above 15% from 2025 to 2030, with the market size likely to exceed 450 billion yuan by 2030.
The growth is backed by real demand release: the acceleration of intelligent transformation in manufacturing, the aging population, rising labor costs, and the continuous improvement of technology maturity. These factors collectively form the fundamental support for the development of the robotics industry.
Industrial Robots: The Core Engine of Manufacturing Upgrades
China has maintained its position as the world’s largest industrial robot application market for 12 consecutive years. In 2024, against a backdrop of a 3% overall decline in global industrial robot installations, the Chinese market is expected to grow by 5%, reaching 290,000 units, accounting for 54% of the global total.
Investment Value Analysis:
Upstream of the Industry Chain: Accelerating Localization of Core Components Core components such as reducers, servo motors, and controllers, which have long been monopolized by overseas manufacturers, are now facing a historic opportunity for domestic substitution. Inovance Technology has a strong technical accumulation in industrial automation, and its humanoid robot controller has been adapted to the NVIDIA Isaac Sim platform, with robot business revenue growing by 68% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. Estun Automation, one of the top three domestic industrial robot companies, has achieved over 80% localization rate in servo system technology.
Application Scenarios: Expanding from Vertical Industries to General Fields The application of industrial robots is penetrating from traditional automotive manufacturing and electronics industries into general fields such as chemicals, food, and logistics. The share of non-automotive electronics applications has increased from 38% in 2020 to 53% in 2024, providing broader growth space for the industry.
Core Targets: Inovance Technology, Estun Automation, Efort Intelligent Equipment, Siasun Robot & Automation
Service Robots: Beneficiaries of Consumption Upgrades and Demographic Changes
Although the service robot market size is relatively small, its growth rate is significant, with an expected annual compound growth rate of 18.8%.
Opportunities in Sub-sectors:
Home Cleaning Robots: The Most Mature Business Model Robotic vacuum cleaners have achieved large-scale commercialization, with leading companies maintaining stable profitability. Ecovacs holds over 45% of the global market share, while Roborock has reached a 57% market share in North America due to its technological innovation and cost-performance advantages. Yunji Intelligent has found its niche in a competitive market through differentiated automatic water supply and drainage functions.
Medical Robots: Structural Opportunities Amid Aging Trends As the population ages, the demand for medical robots continues to be released, with an expected annual compound growth rate of 16.3% from 2025 to 2030. Tianzhihang has a leading technological advantage in orthopedic surgical robots and has obtained relevant certification.
Logistics Robots: Driven by E-commerce and Intelligent Manufacturing Geek+ has maintained its position as the global leader in autonomous mobile robots (AMR) for six consecutive years, with losses narrowing by over 90% in the first half of 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability improvement. Ninebot’s technology accumulated in the smart short-distance transportation field is extending to service robots, creating business synergy.
Core Targets: Ecovacs, Roborock, Ninebot
Humanoid Robots: The Intersection of Technological Breakthroughs and Industrialization
Humanoid robots represent the cutting edge of robotics technology, and Tesla’s Optimus is undoubtedly the most watched benchmark product in this field.
Tesla Optimus: An Industry Benchmark
In the fourth quarter of 2024, Tesla raised its production expectations for Optimus to several thousand to 10,000 units, which is significant for the entire industry. The latest demonstration shows that Optimus has core functions such as autonomous navigation, visual obstacle avoidance, and autonomous charging, capable of walking on uneven terrain and responding to unsafe behaviors.
Musk stated that Tesla has tried all existing motor, actuator, and sensor technologies, which could not be directly applied to robots. Therefore, Tesla will customize and adapt components for Optimus from first principles. This approach of ‘reinventing the wheel’ creates opportunities for Chinese supply chain companies.
Supply Chain Investment Opportunities: Guotai Junan’s research report indicates that, based on market space and competitive landscape, the order of investment opportunities is as follows: joint assemblies, dexterous hands, rolling ball screws, harmonic reducers, and sensors. Mingzhi Electric has received positive feedback from Tesla regarding the sample testing of hollow cup motors and is basically confirmed to participate in the future mass production of Tesla’s humanoid robots.
The launch of NVIDIA’s Jetson Thor robot supercomputer marks the entry of humanoid robot technology into the ‘physical AI’ stage. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang announced the release of the ‘GR00T’ large model and dedicated hardware solution ‘Jetson Thor’ for embodied intelligence in humanoid robots, aiming to create a complete humanoid robot ecosystem.
Investment Logic and Risks: The advancement of Tesla Optimus’s mass production brings certainty to related supply chain companies, but investors need to pay attention to several key points:
- High Technical Barriers: Tesla requires customized components, which places extremely high demands on suppliers’ technical capabilities.
- Intense Competition: Musk admits that all competitors in the Optimus supply chain come from China.
- Uncertainty in Mass Production: Although expectations are optimistic, mass production of humanoid robots still faces technical and cost challenges.
- Valuation Volatility Risks: The risk of disconnection between concept hype and fundamentals needs to be heeded.
Core Targets: UBTECH, Inovance Technology, Mingzhi Electric
Regional Landscape: The Increasingly Apparent Effect of Industrial Clusters
Yangtze River Delta Region: Known for its manufacturing base and technological innovation, it has gathered leading industrial robot companies such as Estun, Inovance Technology, and New Times.
Pearl River Delta Region: Leveraging advantages in the consumer electronics industry, it performs outstandingly in the service robot field, with companies like Ecovacs, Roborock, and UBTECH clustered here.
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region: With resources from research institutions, it has advantages in cutting-edge technology research and special robots.
Southwest Region: Represented by Chongqing, it is actively undertaking industrial transfer with significant cost advantages.
Risk Identification and Investment Strategies
Main Risks:
- Technology Iteration Risk: Robotics technology updates rapidly, with the possibility of disruptive technological routes.
- Intensified Competition Risk: Numerous new entrants may lead to intensified industry competition.
- Commercialization Progress Below Expectations: Some cutting-edge technologies still face challenges in commercialization.
- Policy Change Risks: The industry’s development relies to some extent on policy support.
- Supply Chain Risks: Core components still partially depend on imports.
Investment Strategy Recommendations
Short-term (within 1 year): Focus on leading industrial robot companies that have achieved large-scale applications and core component domestic substitution beneficiaries.
Medium-term (1-3 years): Layout leading companies in sub-sectors with high technical barriers and clear business models, paying attention to the penetration rate of service robots in specific scenarios.
Long-term (over 3 years): Moderately focus on technological breakthroughs and industrialization progress in cutting-edge fields such as humanoid robots.
Portfolio Configuration Ideas: It is recommended to adopt a ‘core + satellite’ strategy, with core positions allocated to mature companies that have achieved commercialization, and satellite positions moderately laid out in high-growth potential cutting-edge technology companies.
Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investment involves risks, and decisions should be made cautiously.