Chief Researcher of Commercial Aerospace at CCID Consulting
Yang Shaoxian
Chief Researcher of Commercial Aerospace
Director of the Commercial Aerospace Research Office at the Military-Civilian Integration Institute
Yang Shaoxian mainly engages in research in the fields of commercial aerospace and advanced technology transfer, having undertaken over 50 projects from national ministries and commissions, led or participated in four major soft projects, two National Social Science Fund projects, and one National Natural Science Fund project, and has been deeply involved in the preparation of over ten national policy plans. He has been awarded titles such as National Advanced Worker in the Industrial and Information System and Advanced Individual in Information Work.
Recently, China successfully launched a group of low-orbit satellites for satellite internet into the designated orbit using the Long March 6 modified carrier rocket at the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center, deploying five satellites in one launch. This group of satellites uses Ka-band and other frequency payloads, primarily providing broadband communication and internet access services to users.
With the significant acceleration of low-orbit satellite launches in China, the development of the satellite internet industry is also speeding up. Will large-scale commercial applications soon follow?
Rapid Improvement of Full-Chain Capabilities
Since the launch of the first group of low-orbit satellites on December 16, 2024, China has completed four satellite launch missions. Yang Shaoxian, Chief Researcher of Commercial Aerospace at CCID Consulting, stated that looking at the timeline of the four satellite launches, the interval days show a trend of “fluctuating shortening,” especially with the last two launches occurring less than a month and a half apart, indicating a significant increase in launch frequency. Additionally, the Long March 6 modified carrier rocket used in this launch was only 20 days apart from its last mission, continuously breaking its own launch record.
From the launch situation of the four groups of low-orbit satellites, the rocket models also show diversification.
“The four launches used three different rocket models, covering various payload requirements. Among them, the first and third groups of satellites were launched by the Long March 5B carrier rocket, which is currently the strongest rocket for near-Earth orbit in China, using a ‘one rocket ten satellites’ method; the second group of satellites was launched by the Long March 8A carrier rocket using a ‘one rocket nine satellites’ method. This rocket is a medium-sized liquid rocket developed to meet the launch needs of large constellations in medium and low orbits, with a payload capacity of 7 tons to a 700 km sun-synchronous orbit. The fourth group of satellites was launched by the Long March 6 modified carrier rocket using a ‘one rocket five satellites’ method. This rocket is China’s first medium-sized carrier rocket with solid-liquid hybrid design, with a payload capacity greater than 4.5 tons to a 700 km sun-synchronous orbit. The different rocket models provide capabilities for launching in various scenarios such as low orbit and polar orbit, ensuring high-level support for differentiated satellite internet launch missions,” Yang Shaoxian said.
Moreover, entering 2025, a batch of new commercial rocket models such as Zhuque 3, Tianlong 3, Gravitational 2, Hyperbola 3, and Zhishenxing 1 will be launched as planned, which will undoubtedly greatly enhance China’s satellite launch capabilities.
In terms of launch sites, the first three groups of satellites were launched from the Wenchang Space Launch Site, which supports large-diameter rockets and multi-satellite launch missions. The fourth group of satellites was launched from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center, whose high latitude advantage is suitable for deploying polar satellites.
Yang Shaoxian stated that in recent years, China has continuously improved its space launch site layout, forming a pattern that combines coastal and inland sites, high and low latitudes, and various launch directions, which can support the diverse launch needs of various spacecraft. With the continuous enhancement of the dual-position launch capability of the Hainan commercial space launch site, it is expected to become the main platform for launching satellites for the satellite internet constellation.
The satellite manufacturing units are becoming increasingly diverse. According to Yang Shaoxian, among the four groups of satellites, the first three groups were all developed by the Fifth Academy of Aerospace Science and Technology Group, relying on the mature engineering system accumulated by the Fifth Academy to complete the network verification. The fourth group of satellites was developed by the Shanghai Micro-Satellite Engineering Center. As the strength of mixed-ownership and private satellite manufacturing units in China continues to grow, more types of enterprises will provide assembly support for satellite internet constellation satellites in the future. Additionally, the completion of the Hainan Satellite Super Factory project is expected to provide a more solid production capacity support for large-scale deployment of constellations.
Is Large-Scale Commercial Application of Satellite Internet Far Off?
“From the number of low-orbit satellite launches, functional positioning, and international experience, there is still a significant gap between China’s low-orbit satellite internet and large-scale commercial applications,” Yang Shaoxian bluntly stated.
Yang Shaoxian indicated that in terms of functional positioning, the first group of low-orbit satellites mainly verifies the cooperative communication technology between high and low orbits; the second group of satellites realizes the batch application of domestically produced onboard communication payloads for the first time, while also verifying multi-satellite parallel testing and rapid launch capabilities; the third group of satellites further expands the coverage density of polar and inclined orbits, laying a certain foundation for applications such as direct satellite connections for mobile phones; the fourth group of satellites launched this time uses Ka-band and other frequency payloads, primarily providing broadband communication and internet access services to users. Based on the functional positioning of the more than 30 satellites currently launched, they are still in the network verification and construction stage, and it cannot be said that they meet the conditions for large-scale commercial applications.
From international experience, SpaceX’s Starlink began limited testing and provided initial commercial services only after deploying nearly 1,000 satellites in 2020. Although China’s satellite internet on-board equipment and technology performance has a late-mover advantage compared to Starlink V1.0 satellites, and the orbital parameters differ, to meet the stable and mature conditions for large-scale commercial applications, it is optimistically estimated that the number of polar satellites to be launched should be in the hundreds to thousands, and currently, there is still a significant gap.
In Yang Shaoxian’s view, there are many factors affecting the commercialization of China’s satellite internet, and continuous breakthroughs are still needed. The development of satellite internet is a complex system engineering project, covering multiple key links such as “satellites, rockets, launch sites, measurement, and use”. Any lag in one link or field may restrict the overall development of the industry. At this stage, there are still many challenges, such as the limited number of commercial launch sites, which cannot meet the growing demand for high-density launches; the insufficient supply of low-cost, high-capacity rockets, and the immature technology of reusable rockets, which keeps satellite launch costs high, thereby limiting the speed and scale of satellite networking. Additionally, the high cost of satellite manufacturing, the need for breakthroughs in communication payloads and terminal application technologies, and the immaturity of business models are intertwined, collectively restricting the development of the industry.
“However, overall development is continuously improving. The emergence of commercial satellites, commercial rockets, and commercial measurement and control enterprises is increasingly enriching the industrial chain ecosystem,” industry analysis suggests.
The capital market also continues to be optimistic and empower the industrial chain. According to the “2025 China Commercial Aerospace Innovation Ecosystem Report,” there were 138 financing events in the industry in 2024, with disclosed amounts exceeding 20 billion yuan, setting a historical high. The three major fields of satellite applications, rocket manufacturing, and satellite manufacturing have shown significant fundraising capabilities, completing 50, 32, and 29 financing events, respectively.
Western Securities stated that the progress of the satellite internet industry is accelerating and has valuation expansion potential. The satellite internet industry is a core link of new productive forces. From the policy perspective, policies and regulations related to direct satellite connections, satellite network coordination, and the entry of private satellite enterprises have been successively introduced in the past two years, and the top-level policy framework for the satellite industry has become relatively complete. From the product and user perspective, the number of Tian Tong package users has exceeded 2 million, with over 16 million terminal devices, and the Huawei satellite internet public testing is expected to start in the second half of 2025, gradually building the user base for satellite internet access in China. (End)
This article was published on June 23 in the “China High-Tech Industry Report”
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