On December 11th, the morning strategy focuses on two main lines: the style switching of trend stocks and the strength continuation of consecutive stocks. Funds are shifting from high-tech stocks to price-increasing lines and consumer sectors, while the consecutive stocks focus on the certainty of core leaders’ advancement.
First, let’s look at the trend direction: yesterday, the chips of high-position trend stocks showed significant loosening, with the rebound lines of British computing power and domestic chips nearly giving back all their gains. The market is left with two major supports – the price-increasing line (storage, battery materials) and low-position consumption. The key anchors for the price-increasing line are Tianji Co., Ltd. and Xiangnong Chip Creation. If either of them falls below the five-day moving average, it will directly lead to an adjustment in the trend sector; the consumption line has two branches, domestic and foreign, with domestic focusing on food and beverages, and foreign on tourism, duty-free, and cross-border e-commerce. From the top ten trading volumes yesterday, China Duty Free Group was the only consumer stock listed, which not only hedges against the adjustment of technology but is also expected to become the core of the next capacity trend: if China Duty Free consolidates, it can rely on the five-day moving average for trading; if it breaks through directly, it can strengthen the overall pattern.
Next, regarding the core of consecutive stocks, the focus is on Hefei China. Yesterday, Hefei managed to achieve a reversal, thanks to the support from Jingjia Phase, Renmin Tongtai, and Sanmu Group during the bidding phase. Whether these three stocks can continue to be strong today will directly affect Hefei’s advancement environment. Currently, Hefei is facing a serious volatility red line of 200% over 30 days, and today we need to pay attention to two paths: either open high and exceed 4 points to trigger volatility and directly pull up, or open slightly lower and oscillate to wash out before breaking through. A lower opening would clearly indicate underperformance. Additionally, Pingtan Development, which saw aggressive buying at the end of yesterday, needs to open positively today to stabilize sentiment; opening too low may trigger selling from yesterday’s buying funds, creating a reversal pressure.
The trend of Hefei will directly determine the advancement rate of consecutive stocks: if it advances strongly, the overall tolerance rate for consecutive stocks will increase; if negative feedback occurs, mid-tier stocks are likely to follow under pressure. For investors who had no early positions yesterday, it will be difficult for Moen Electric and Furui Co., Ltd. to take over today; Sanmu Group, due to yesterday’s rumor clarification announcement, if it cannot respond with a strong performance, its strength is questionable, making participation cautious.
At the second board level, the core logic is the supplementary rebound game of Hefei, divided into two major camps: traditional supplementary rebounds on the main board and 20cm elastic supplementary rebounds. Yesterday, when Moen Electric exploded in the afternoon, 20cm elastic stocks were frequently exchanged for the second board, indicating that funds have the intention to switch styles. Moen’s re-sealing relies on the unchanged sentiment of Hefei and reflects the competition between the two supplementary rebound camps. On the main board supplementary rebound side, Renmin Tongtai, Dongbai Group, Sanyuan Co., Ltd., and Guosheng Technology are all focused on recognizability. Today, the size of the one-word sealing orders will determine the order of priority. Attention should be paid to Dongbai and Sanyuan being suppressed by Sanmu, Guosheng being influenced by Moen, and Renmin Tongtai being more likely to stand out due to its positional advantage in the one-word team; the expected difference target is Zhongrui Co., Ltd. If the first four main board supplementary rebounds are all one-word and the sealing orders are stable, Zhongrui may be abandoned by funds, but if any one does not meet expectations, Zhongrui needs to quickly change hands to establish recognizability, similar to the previous logic of the Tibet Tourism’s counterattack during the Yashu Water Power Station speculation.
Regarding elastic stocks, Qingshuiyuan is a key anchor point, and it must not show negative feedback – as the current pioneer of elastic height, a 20cm third board is equivalent to a 10cm sixth board, making the takeover difficulty comparable to a fourth board on the main board. Subsequently, we need to observe the bidding strength of elastic stocks. If a 20cm third board truly appears, it may overdraw the expected height of consecutive stocks on the main board, as 10cm is difficult to match in elasticity, referencing the style characteristics of last year’s 924 market.