Precision Reducers
Core “Joints” of Humanoid Robots
Domestic Substitution Opens New Investment Opportunities
With the continuous impact of technological waves, the field of embodied intelligence is experiencing a period of rapid development. As the key to achieving precise movement in embodied intelligent devices, precision reducers, with their “speed reduction and torque increase” function, have become the core focus of industrial competition, and the trend of domestic substitution has also created significant investment opportunities.
1. Rapid Development of Embodied Intelligence,
Precision Reducers Become Core Components of “Bottleneck”
All 14 rotary joints of Tesla’s Optimus Gen2 are equipped with harmonic reducers, and 32 out of 54 degrees of freedom in the Fourier GR-1 rely on harmonic reducers and planetary reducers—every “joint movement” of embodied intelligent devices is inseparable from the precise transmission of precision reducers. As a “bridge” connecting the power source and the actuator, precision reducers achieve “speed reduction and torque increase” through gear meshing, and their precision and lifespan directly determine the stability of device movements.
Currently, precision reducers are mainly divided into three major technical routes:
01
Harmonic Reducers
Small size, high precision, suitable for light load scenarios such as forearms and wrists, preferred by mainstream humanoid robots like Tesla’s Optimus.
02
RV Reducers
Strong rigidity, large load, mainly used in heavy load joints such as bases and upper arms.
03
Planetary Reducers
High efficiency, low cost, widely used in lower limb joints and collaborative robots.
According to Dongwu Securities, the global market size for precision reducers used in humanoid robots is expected to reach 10 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 29% from 2024 to 2030, where RV reducers and harmonic reducers will become the core growth engines.
2. Domestic Breakthrough Under Overseas Monopoly:
From “Following” to “Running Alongside” Technological Leap
For a long time, the precision reducer market has been monopolized by giants such as Japan’s Harmonic Drive and Nabtesco. However, domestic manufacturers are breaking barriers through technological breakthroughs.
In terms of harmonic reducers, Lude Harmonic focuses on core materials, currently using 40CrMoNiA special steel, and has improved transmission accuracy to within 30″ through “P tooth profile” design, breaking through the bottleneck of flexible wheel materials, and accelerating production capacity expansion, with a planned investment of 2 billion yuan in 2023 to build a new generation of harmonic reducer production line with a capacity of 1 million units.
In terms of RV reducers, Shuanghuan Drive has “conquered” processing technology, mastering core processes such as cycloidal wheel grinding and bearing assembly, with product lifespan exceeding 6000 hours, approaching Nabtesco’s level. Currently, the market share of RV reducers remains the highest among domestic manufacturers, with a market share of 15% in 2023, covering leading robot manufacturers such as Estun and Efort.
In terms of planetary reducers, Zhongdali has “opened up” the integrated path, launching an integrated module of “reducer + motor + driver”, with transmission efficiency exceeding 95%, and a price 30% lower than foreign brands. By 2024, the revenue share of intelligent execution units is expected to reach 41%, becoming a potential supplier in Tesla’s supply chain.
3. Countdown to Mass Production of Humanoid Robots,
Three Clear Investment Logics Emerge
01
Demand Side: The Critical Point of Explosion from “0 to 1”
Tesla’s Optimus is expected to reach a production capacity of 1 million units by 2027, requiring 14 harmonic reducers per unit, corresponding to a market scale of 2.1 billion yuan. Domestic manufacturers such as Yushu Technology and Ubtech are accelerating their follow-up, and by 2030, global sales of humanoid robots may exceed 2.45 million units, with a demand for over 34 million reducers.
02
Supply Side: Domestic Manufacturers Open Pathways for “Volume and Price Increase”
Price Advantage: The unit price of domestic harmonic reducers is 1000-1500 yuan, 50% lower than Harmonic Drive, with significant cost-performance advantages. Capacity Ramp-Up: Lude Harmonic, Shuanghuan Drive, and others plan to exceed a total capacity of 2 million units by 2025, meeting 40% of global demand.
03
Policy Side: “Robots +” Catalyzes Industrial Chain Upgrades
The national “14th Five-Year” robot plan clearly supports the localization of core components, and Tianjin is actively responding, relying on its intelligent manufacturing industrial base to vigorously promote the development of the precision reducer-related industry.
4. Perspective from Guotou Taihai:
Seizing Investment Opportunities to Support Industrial Development
Focus on collaboration opportunities between local robot integrators and leading reducer companies, promote the application of reducers in industrial robots, service robots, and other embodied intelligent devices, and facilitate collaborative industrial development. At the same time, focus on leading enterprises in the precision reducer sub-sector, gain insights into industry trends, strategically position at the right time, and explore the potential of early-stage innovative companies to seize the initiative in industrial development.
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