Recently, there has been a “cold joke” in the tech circle: someone asked when Bichuang Technology’s financial report would turn profitable. The answer was, when retail investors learn to short the stock. This is, of course, a jest, but it reflects the complex emotions the market has towards this company.
As a veteran in quantitative investment, I have been researching the IoT sensor sector and found that Bichuang Technology’s trajectory resembles Schrödinger’s cat—there seem to be signs of a breakthrough technically, but fundamentally, it feels like a bottomless pit. Today, let’s dissect whether this company is worth betting on.
Fundamental Analysis: Performance Collapse, Is Management ‘Swimming Naked’?
Let’s get to the hard facts:
| Financial Metrics | 2024 Data | Year-on-Year Change | Industry Comparison |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Revenue | 768 million yuan | -14.07% | 50% downstream |
| Net Profit | -142 million yuan | -491.24% | Bottom of the industry |
| Gross Margin | 32.85% | -0.90% | Lower mid-range |
| Debt-to-Asset Ratio | 22.15% | +2.05% | Within safety line |
| Net Operating Cash Flow | 74.82 million yuan | -22.28% | Industry average 80 million |
My logic is as follows:
- Awkward Industry Positioning: The IoT sensor sector seems glamorous, but Bichuang Technology is stuck in a middle ground of “unable to reach high-end, lacking advantages in low-end”. Competitors like AODI Infrared and GoerTek are thriving in automotive and consumer electronics, while it can only nibble on bones in the industrial monitoring sector, with a market share of less than 5%.
- Technical Foundation Running Out: Although it holds 79 invention patents, most are concentrated in traditional fields like wireless sensor networks. The new patents applied for in 2024, such as the design of a six-axis robot, seem more like “window dressing” with limited practical application scenarios.
- Mysterious Management Operations: The acquisition of Zhuoli Hanguang resulted in an impairment of goodwill of 88.63 million yuan, directly driving net profit into the negative. This reminds me of a saying: “A toad eating a scale—determined to self-destruct.” Even more shocking is that in Q1 2025, cash flow plummeted to -55.12 million yuan, making it difficult to even pay salaries.
Technical Analysis: Are the Main Players ‘Drawing Cakes’ or ‘Digging Pits’?
First, let’s look at the data:
| Time Range | Stock Price Range | Change Rate | Volume Change | MACD | RSI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last Month | 14.15-15.80 | +11.66% | Volume down 30% | Red bars shortening | Overbought zone |
| Last Six Months | 10.75-15.80 | +47% | Volume up 50% | Golden cross then flat | High position oscillation |
| Last Year | 10.75-24.70 | -36% | Volume shrinking | Death cross then divergence | Oversold zone |
My judgment is:
- Resistance Level Becomes a ‘Ghost Gate’: At the position of 15.86 yuan, I have observed for three months, and every time the stock price approaches, it gets knocked down, resembling “looking at the mountain and running to death.” After the last failed attempt, the trading volume shrank to a freezing point, with net outflow of over 20 million from main funds.
- Moving Average System ‘Thinning’: Although the 5-day and 10-day moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, the 20-day moving average acts like a “big bearish line” pressing down, a typical “false breakout” pattern. This trend reminds me of the situation before the collapse of LeEco, where retail investors got trapped as they chased.
- Volume-Price Divergence is Deadly: When the stock price rises, the volume shrinks; when it falls, the volume increases. If this isn’t “offloading,” what is? Especially on May 23, the -4.46% bearish line had a transaction amount of 126 million, with a turnover rate of nearly 5%, a clear signal of main funds fleeing.
Industry and Macro Analysis: ‘Mirage’ Under Policy Dividends
First, let’s look at the industry map:
| Dimension | Current Status Description | Future Expectations |
|---|---|---|
| Policy Support | Intensive introduction of new infrastructure and industrial internet policies, with the market size expected to exceed 340 billion yuan by 2025 | Continued intensification |
| Competitive Landscape | Pyramid structure, with leading enterprises occupying 60% of the market, Bichuang Technology struggling in the third tier | Matthew effect intensifying |
| Technical Trends | Miniaturization, intelligence, and self-powering becoming mainstream, Bichuang Technology’s technical reserves lagging behind leading companies by 2-3 years | The gap may further widen |
I want to remind everyone:
- Policy is Both Honey and Arsenic: Although the state supports the IoT, most subsidies flow to giants like Huawei and Hikvision. Bichuang Technology can’t even secure a decent national project and can only pick up the scraps.
- Industry Involution to Suffocation: Low-end sensor gross margins are less than 15%, and Bichuang Technology’s products have no advantage in price wars. Even worse, BYD and CATL are developing their own sensors, leaving no soup for them in the future.
- Macro Risks Hanging Over: The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike cycle is not over, putting pressure on tech stock valuations. Bichuang Technology’s price-to-earnings ratio is negative, and its price-to-book ratio is 2.82 times, which is considered “ridiculously expensive” in the industry, and it could crash at the slightest disturbance.
Future Stock Price Prediction: Bottom Fishing or Running for Your Life?
First, here’s the conclusion:
| Time Dimension | Prediction Direction | Target Price Range | Risk Level | Suitable Investor Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short Term (1-3 months) | Fluctuating Downward | 12-14 yuan | ★★★★☆ | Short-term experts (need to enter and exit quickly) |
| Medium Term (3-6 months) | Gradual Decline | 10-12 yuan | ★★★★★ | Swing traders (need strict stop-loss) |
| Long Term (6 months or more) | Delisting Risk | <10 yuan | ★★★★★ | Long-term investors (suggest to stay away) |
Retail Investors’ ‘Meat Grinder’, Institutions’ ‘ATM’
Main Line Logic: The core contradiction of Bichuang Technology lies in “technological lag + chaotic management + industry involution,” forming a “death triangle” with no solution in the short term. Although the IoT is a sunrise industry, this company resembles a “sunset enterprise” more.
Risks and Opportunities:
- Most Prominent Risk Sector: Accounts receivable account for 11.86%, with serious inventory backlog, which could explode at any time.
- Most Prominent Opportunity Sector: If one day it announces acquisition by Huawei or SMIC, there could be a short-term speculative opportunity, but the probability is lower than winning the lottery.
Finally, a word of advice: Investing is not gambling; don’t always think about bottom fishing for a comeback. In the murky waters of Bichuang Technology, retail investors are the “chives,” and institutions are the “sickles.” The stock market does not believe in tears, only in logic and discipline.
Disclaimer
This article is a personal diary and does not constitute investment advice. All views expressed in this article are solely my own and do not have any guiding significance.