Automobiles are the largest and most promising application scenario in the domestic MCU industry. The MCU is the core chip for automotive control. With the development of smart vehicles, users continually raise new demands for the safety, stability, and intelligence of cars. The realization of each in-car function requires the stable support of complex chipsets and algorithms, and MCUs will play an even greater role. This development trend presents both challenges and opportunities for the domestic automotive-grade MCU industry.

The domestic MCU industry has a market space worth hundreds of billions, but the competitive landscape is highly concentrated, with the top eight manufacturers occupying nearly 90% of the market share, all of which are foreign companies. In terms of automotive applications, the domestic MCU market is still monopolized by foreign brands. Both in terms of market share and technological advancement, overseas leading enterprises currently hold an absolute advantage. Although there are quite a few domestic MCU companies, most focus on consumer-grade markets, and very few can effectively replace imports in industrial control and automotive electronics. Therefore, domestic enterprises urgently need to break through technical barriers, connect the industrial ecosystem, and gradually achieve domestic substitution.

With the joint effects of policy support, supply and demand promotion, technological iteration, and financial support, the domestic substitution of automotive-grade MCUs is imperative. The competition in the domestic automotive-grade MCU market mainly exists between overseas leading enterprises and local companies. Some local companies have launched automotive-grade 32-bit MCUs and are gradually achieving mass production. Domestic companies are expected to continue breaking through technological barriers, aligning with international standards, and connecting the industrial ecosystem, thereby changing the long-standing monopoly of overseas leading enterprises.

We believe that although domestic companies currently occupy a small market share in the automotive-grade MCU field, the domestic market space and demand for domestic substitution are substantial. Companies that can better leverage their geographical advantages and provide reliable, customized products are expected to continue breaking through and gain larger market shares. We recommend paying attention to primary market investment opportunities in companies such as BYD Semiconductor, Chipway Microelectronics, Chipways, Jihai Semiconductor, and Hangshun Chips.

Contents

1. MCU is the Core Component of Smart Vehicles

2. The Industry is Overall at the End of the Introduction Phase

3. Multiple Factors Drive Domestic Automotive-Grade MCUs into the Growth Stage

4. The Automotive-Grade MCU Industry Chain and Ecosystem Still Need Improvement

5. Accelerated Domestic Substitution Leads to Continuous Changes in Industry Structure

6. Main Conclusions

1. MCU is the Core Component of Smart Vehicles

1.1

MCUs are Widely Used in Various Industries

A microcontroller unit (MCU) refers to a chip that integrates a scaled-down version of a central processing unit (CPU) along with memory, counters, analog-to-digital converters (A/D), asynchronous transceivers (UART), programmable logic controllers (PLC), and various input/output structures into a single chip, forming a chip-level computer widely used in consumer electronics, computers and communications, industrial applications, automotive electronics, and the Internet of Things. The upgrade of traditional applications and the impetus from emerging applications continue to trigger the potential of MCUs.

Figure 1 MCU Product Schematic

Automotive Grade MCU: Breakthroughs in Smart New Energy

Source: MIKROE Official Website

Common automotive semiconductor chips are mainly divided into control semiconductors, power semiconductors, and sensors. MCUs are generally used as the core chips for automotive control. According to IC Insight, the sales of automotive-grade MCUs accounted for 39% of total MCU sales in 2019, and the demand and usage of automotive-grade MCUs are expected to further increase. For smart vehicles, the application range of automotive-grade MCUs will be broader; whether for simple driving operations, such as engine control, wipers, window control, electric seats, air conditioning, or for complex and intelligent in-car functions such as body dynamics, driving control, infotainment, and driver assistance, each function’s realization requires complex chipsets and stable algorithms for support. iSuppli reports that MCUs account for about 30% of the semiconductor devices in a car, with an average of about 70 MCUs required per vehicle, while a new energy vehicle may require over 300 MCUs.

Figure 2 Wide Distribution of Automotive MCUs

Source: Electronics Enthusiast

1.2

MCUs Will Be an Important Component of the “Brain” of Vehicles

As the smart brain of the vehicle, the MCU plays a core role in “thinking, computing, and controlling.” With the evolution of the electronic architecture of vehicles towards a centralized approach, MCUs not only need to continue to collect, convert, and transmit high-dimensional data such as color and spatial information but also take on the core role of intelligent decision-making control. As the level of autonomous driving gradually increases, the MCU market is expected to accelerate its growth.

Taking the electronic control system of autonomous vehicles as an example. During driving, various sensors will transmit the collected data to the MCUs of the chassis system, power system, braking system, and driving system, where the MCUs will collect and convert data, and pass it to the central system for mathematical calculations and driving decision-making. The central system will continue to send decision instructions back to the MCUs, which will relay them to the execution objects in the chassis system, power system, braking system, and driving system to execute the instructions, thus achieving intelligent control of each execution object by the MCU.

Figure 3 MCUs as the Core Hub for PC and Information Collection

Source: Electronics Enthusiast – Automotive Electronics Section

Taking the vehicle control system of new energy vehicles as an example. The Vehicle Controller Unit (VCU) is the core electronic control unit for implementing overall vehicle control decisions and is the central control unit of new energy vehicles. The VCU determines the driver’s intent by collecting signals from the accelerator pedal, gear position, brake pedal, and monitors the vehicle status (speed, temperature, etc.). After processing, the VCU sends vehicle operation status control instructions to the power system and power battery system through the MCU, thereby controlling the working modes of the engine and the on-board power system.

Figure 4 Schematic Diagram of the Vehicle Controller for New Energy Vehicles

Source: Jingwei Hengrun Official Website

2. The Industry is Overall at the End of the Introduction Phase

According to IC Insight data, the global MCU market reached $20.4 billion in 2019, and it is estimated that the global MCU market will approach $24 billion by 2022.

Figure 5 Global MCU Market Size from 2015 to 2022

Source: IC Insights, Guotai Junan Securities Research

MCU applications are mainly concentrated in automotive electronics, industrial control, computer networks, and consumer electronics, with market shares of 33%, 25%, 23%, and 10% respectively in 2019.

Figure 6 Comparison of MCU Application Fields in Global and Chinese Markets

Source: IHS, ASPENCORE, Guotai Junan Securities Research

The solid foundation of China’s manufacturing industry creates vast market space and a favorable growth environment for MCU companies. In 2019, the domestic MCU market reached 25.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14%. Among them, the MCU market for consumer electronics has the largest share, while automotive electronics ranks second with a share of 16.2%. Referring to the global MCU market structure, the domestic automotive-grade MCU development is broad and its share is expected to further increase. According to IC Insights, sales of automotive-grade MCU chips are expected to approach $6.5 billion in 2020, with a gradual increase in growth rate from 2021 to 2023, reaching $8.1 billion in sales by 2023.

Figure 7 Accelerated Growth Trend of the Chinese MCU Market from 2015 to 2022

Source: Electronic Engineering Magazine, Guotai Junan Securities Research

From the perspective of technological maturity, domestic MCU companies face high technical barriers and strict international standards, making it difficult to break through these barriers, resulting in lower technological maturity. Currently, most products focus on 8-bit/16-bit products, with a significant gap remaining for high-end 32-bit products. Only a few companies have achieved mass production of automotive-grade products, and there is still a certain technological gap compared to international giants.

From the perspective of industry competition, automotive-grade chips have been monopolized by foreign chip manufacturers for many years, mainly by leading international electronics manufacturers such as NXP, Infineon, and TI. Domestic companies only include BYD, Zhaoyi Innovation, and a few others that can break through automotive-grade standards and are gradually increasing mass production. However, the industrial ecosystem of the domestic automotive-grade MCU industry has not yet been fully constructed, and the competitiveness of domestic enterprises is not strong enough to gain market dominance in the short term. They are still in a following stage.

Based on the analysis of market scale, market share, technological maturity, and industry competition, we conclude that the automotive-grade MCU industry is still transitioning from the end of the introduction phase to the growth phase, with vast market space for domestic substitution.

Figure 8 The Domestic Automotive-Grade MCU Industry is at the End of the Introduction Phase

Source: Guotai Junan Securities Research

3. Multiple Factors Drive Domestic Automotive-Grade MCUs into the Growth Stage

3.1

Relevant Policies Favor the Integrated Circuit and Automotive-Grade MCU Industry

In October 2020, the State Council’s executive meeting approved the “New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2020-2035),” which mentions that market-driven, innovation-driven, coordinated promotion, and open development will be the basic principles. After 15 years of continuous efforts, China aims to achieve international leading levels in core technologies of new energy vehicles and enter the ranks of major automotive powers. Automotive electronics, as the core component of new energy vehicles, will become a highly dynamic and promising market direction in the semiconductor industry. Strong policy support and the integration of the industry will drive the growth, development, and wide application of automotive-grade MCUs.

Table 1 Relevant Policies Strongly Support the Development of MCU, Smart Vehicles, New Energy Vehicles, and the Integrated Circuit Industry

Source: Government Websites, Guotai Junan Securities Research

3.2

Domestic Substitution Demand Drives Breakthroughs in Automotive-Grade MCU Bottlenecks

From the current perspective of domestic vehicle ownership, the demand for automotive-grade MCUs will increase. At the same time, with the increasing intelligence of vehicles, the demand for automotive-grade MCUs will further expand, and the quantity and value of automotive-grade MCUs are expected to increase significantly, with the growth rate of 32-bit MCUs expected to be faster. However, domestic MCU manufacturers currently hold a small market share in the automotive-grade MCU field. Considering the current restrictions on semiconductor imports in China, the demand for domestic substitution is increasing.

Table 2 The Technical Standards for Automotive-Grade MCUs Are Far Higher Than Those for Consumer Electronics Chips

Source: Electronic Product World, Guotai Junan Securities Research

Currently, the bottlenecks in automotive-grade MCUs are quite obvious. Generally speaking, the technical standards for automotive electronics products are more stringent than those for commercial and industrial-grade products, with requirements for working temperature, delivery yield, and working life ranking just below military-grade standards. For example, automotive-grade MCUs must meet the zero-failure ISO-16949 quality standard, AEC-Q100 reliability standard, and ISO26262 functional safety assurance level standard, with a usage cycle of 15 to 20 years. The technical difficulties are far greater than those for consumer electronics chips. Additionally, the ecosystem is complex; automotive-grade standards encompass requirements across the entire industry chain from chip design, wafer processing, packaging testing to product testing. Only companies with rich chip design experience, comprehensive product quality control, and sufficient human and material resources can develop MCUs that meet the normal operational needs of vehicles.

Research and development cycles for automotive-grade MCU chips are long, design thresholds are high, and capital investment is significant. Currently, the domestic automotive-grade MCU market is still dominated by foreign semiconductor manufacturers, such as Renesas, NXP, Texas Instruments, Infineon, Cypress, and STMicroelectronics, while domestic automotive-grade MCU companies are still in a catching-up phase. Considering the high stability requirements for automotive-grade MCUs, once a product is used by automakers, it is difficult to replace. Moreover, due to the high switching costs for automakers, they generally do not easily replace their component products, making it crucial to secure a position early. If startups can break through the technological bottlenecks of automotive-grade MCUs and successfully enter the market, they can establish a high barrier to entry and enter a stable supply phase of 10 to 15 years, making replacement difficult. This characteristic gives domestic MCU companies a significant opportunity to gradually penetrate the vast automotive electronics market by breaking through automotive-grade technological bottlenecks.

Table 3 The Bottlenecks of Automotive-Grade MCUs Are Quite High

Source: Electronic Product World, Guotai Junan Securities Research

3.3

Smart Connectivity Drives Upgrades of Automotive-Grade MCUs, 32-Bit Becomes the Mainstream Development Direction

In the fields of ADAS and autonomous driving, MCUs mainly cooperate with high-performance MPUs or SoCs responsible for perception, calculating control variables based on the current vehicle motion status and perceived targets. As vehicles evolve into intelligent systems, industry and policy regulations on the safety and environmental friendliness of smart vehicles are becoming increasingly stringent, leading to higher demands for the computational capabilities of MCUs. Especially as domain controllers and numerous ECUs become the mainstream architecture for automotive electronic control, there is a higher demand for computational power and network interface functionality, while also needing to reduce power consumption, which places higher requirements on MCU chips and directly drives the upgrade of automotive-grade MCUs.

In terms of bus width, automotive-grade MCUs are gradually transitioning from 8/16 bits to 32 bits. Most 32-bit MCUs operate at frequencies between 100-350 MHz, offering better processing capabilities and execution efficiency than 8/16-bit MCUs, and their applications are broader. Additionally, with the adoption of advanced process technologies, the cost of 32-bit MCUs has been decreasing year by year, making them more competitive in price. In the future, as the intelligence of vehicles continues to increase, automotive-grade MCUs will develop towards multi-functional integration and ultra-low power consumption, with their usage numbers continuously increasing. At the same time, the extensive use of onboard sensors and cameras will also require high-performance MCUs for analog data processing and control. Therefore, in future higher-level autonomous vehicles, under the trend of multi-sensor fusion, 32-bit automotive-grade MCUs will become mainstream products.

Table 4 Application Fields of Automotive-Grade MCUs

Source: Industrial Technology Research Institute, Guotai Junan Securities Research

In terms of process technology, the mainstream currently is the 55nm process, with the future potential for promoting 40nm and 22nm processes. Compared to the advanced processes of 5nm and 3nm in integrated circuits, 40nm and 22nm are not cutting-edge technology nodes, but they are sufficient for automotive-grade MCUs, which poses relatively low pressure for China’s relatively lagging semiconductor technology. The more advanced the process, the better the dynamic power consumption of MCUs, but the static power consumption may worsen. The market generally believes that 40nm and 22nm are very suitable technology nodes for MCUs, as MCUs at these sizes can achieve optimal cost.

3.4

Capital Markets Gradually Enter the Scene, Supporting the Development of Automotive-Grade MCU Industry

Automotive electronics is a typical high-investment, long-cycle industry that has recently attracted continuous attention from capital. With the increasing demand for domestic substitution of automotive-grade MCUs, as well as the future expansion of demand for autonomous driving and new energy vehicles, capital is mainly focusing on local companies with strong R&D capabilities that can develop automotive-grade 32-bit MCUs. Companies such as Chipways, Xinwang, and BYD Semiconductor have received significant financing in recent years and are generally favored by capital.

Chipways has now mastered key core technologies for a series of automotive intelligent control and sensing chips and chip solutions, including 32-bit body MCUs, domain controller MCUs, new energy vehicle battery monitoring sensor chips BMSAFE, and vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communication chips, and has completed Series A financing. Xinwang has achieved full coverage from 8-bit to 32-bit automotive-grade MCUs, becoming the most comprehensive automotive-grade MCU supplier in China, covering intelligent cockpit, body control, automotive power and motor, and automotive lighting fields, and has completed hundreds of millions in Series A financing. In May and June 2020, BYD Semiconductor completed Series A and A+ financing, attracting 30 well-known investment institutions, including Sequoia Capital China Fund, CICC Capital, and State Investment Innovation, with total financing amounting to 2.7 billion yuan. After the two rounds of financing, BYD Semiconductor’s valuation increased from 7.5 billion to 30 billion.

4. The Automotive-Grade MCU Industry Chain and Ecosystem Still Need Improvement

The MCU industry chain includes wafers, packaging testing, microprocessors, controller hardware, and other links. Under the national requirement to enhance self-control, companies like Suzhou Guoxin have entered the automotive microprocessor field, supporting some military projects. Currently, the international MCU industry ecosystem is very mature, but the domestic MCU industry ecosystem is still not perfect. It is necessary to achieve coordination of upstream and downstream resources in the industry chain, including IP, chip design, wafer plants, and packaging testing plants, to improve the safety, stability, and reliability of automotive-grade MCU products. According to ittbank data, the number of domestic MCU manufacturers is increasing, but their products are mostly concentrated in low-end electronic products, with the mid-to-high-end market still in the hands of foreign enterprises. For Chinese companies, the mainstream market for domestic products is still focused on 8-bit MCUs, accounting for about 50%, while 16/32-bit MCUs account for about 20% each.

Figure 9 Wafer Plants and Packaging Plants are the Main Suppliers for the MCU Manufacturing Industry Chain

Source: Gasgoo

5. Accelerated Domestic Substitution Leads to Continuous Changes in Industry Structure

5.1

External Competitive Environment is Continuously Changing

(1) Bargaining Power of Suppliers

In the MCU manufacturing industry chain, wafer manufacturers and packaging plants, as upstream suppliers, are showing an increasing trend in bargaining power. In October 2020, Shanghai Securities reported that orders for wafer and packaging plants have been scheduled into the second half of 2021. In the context of tight capacity across the entire industry chain, semiconductor wafer manufacturing, packaging, and components have begun to see price increases. The increase in bargaining power and prices is mainly due to the following reasons: ① The demand for various chips in multiple fields such as smartphones, security, and automotive is continuously increasing; ② The uncertainty of the pandemic has led the entire industry chain to increase stocking cycles and inventory needs, thus increasing capacity demand; ③ The outbreak of the pandemic overseas has caused a sharp decline in the capacity of overseas wafer and packaging plants, and domestic chip manufacturers are seeking domestic substitutes, further exacerbating the tension in domestic capacity. In summary, the bargaining power of suppliers for automotive-grade MCUs will further increase.

(2) Bargaining Power of Buyers

The update speed of automotive electronic modules is faster than that of vehicle models, and the update of automotive electronic products relies on equipment updates; therefore, the frequency of equipment updates is also high. During the equipment update process, downstream manufacturers generally replace the automotive electronic equipment directly instead of retrofitting old equipment, resulting in a rapid growth rate in the automotive electronic automation equipment market each year. At the same time, due to the high technical barriers of automotive semiconductors, the automotive electronic market often experiences supply shortages, so automotive-grade MCU companies with core technologies have a higher voice and bargaining power.

(3) Threat of New Entrants

The technical barriers for automotive-grade MCUs are extremely high, requiring strong R&D capabilities and manufacturing capabilities to produce semiconductor chips that meet international standards. Additionally, companies need to effectively integrate industry resources and connect the industrial ecosystem to improve market share. More importantly, the automotive semiconductor industry is a typical high-investment, long-cycle technology industry, making it difficult for any new company to quickly break into the market in the short term. Currently, the domestic market is monopolized by overseas leading enterprises, including NXP, Infineon, and STMicroelectronics; the domestic MCU market only has a small share occupied by listed companies like BYD and Zhaoyi Innovation, as well as startups like Chipways and Xinwang. Therefore, at this stage, the threat of new entrants in the domestic market is not significant.

(4) Degree of Competition Among Competitors

At present, the competition in domestic automotive electronics and automotive-grade MCUs mainly exists between overseas leading enterprises and local companies. Overseas leading enterprises hold a monopoly position, and the degree of competition is quite intense. However, considering the continuous restrictions imposed by the US on Chinese semiconductor products and the increasing demand for MCUs in the domestic automotive market, the demand for domestic substitution is rising. We expect that local enterprises will continue to break through technological barriers and gain dominance through close cooperation with domestic automakers, reshaping the competitive landscape.

(5) Threat of Substitutes

The substitutes for MCUs come from internal product upgrades. In terms of structural form, the chip structure of MCUs will evolve from general-purpose to SoC (System on Chip). General-purpose MCUs can be seen as a simplified version of CPUs, integrating memory, counters, IO interfaces, I/D conversion, and other structures into a single chip to form a chip-level computer primarily for control instruction calculations; SoCs are system-level chips that typically consist of CPUs, GPUs, DSPs, NPUs, and various peripheral interfaces and storage types. Currently, SoCs are mainly used in more complex areas such as cockpit IVI and domain control. SoCs have a higher level of integration than MCUs, often incorporating AI processing units with more complex functions, capable of integrating larger hardware systems to improve resource utilization and processing efficiency. As the architecture of automotive electronics transitions to a centralized model, the market will require more specialized chips, leading to a greater variety of SoC MCUs and manufacturers. However, general-purpose MCUs remain widely applicable and will continue to exist in the market.

Table 5 Performance Comparison Between General-Purpose and SoC Structures

Source: Wikipedia, Guotai Junan Securities Research

5.2

Domestic Enterprises Achieve Breakthroughs in Automotive-Grade Products

Since China has vigorously advocated the development of the semiconductor industry, domestic automotive-grade MCU companies have also made technological breakthroughs. Coupled with the impact of the China-US trade trends, domestic enterprises are gradually seizing the domestic automotive electronics automotive-grade MCU market. Domestic enterprises are jumping out of the predicament of 8-bit MCUs and low-end products and solutions, actively developing 32-bit MCUs, and entering the mid-range product market while developing general-purpose chips and their solutions. For example, BYD Semiconductor successfully launched its first-generation 8-bit automotive-grade MCU chip in 2018 and its first-generation 32-bit automotive-grade MCU chip in 2019, which have been mass-loaded in all series of BYD vehicles, with over 5 million automotive-grade MCUs installed and cumulative shipments exceeding 2 billion, achieving a significant breakthrough for domestic MCUs in the market. Xinwang Microelectronics has successfully passed strict automotive-grade standards with its self-developed KungFu core’s stable performance, breaking the long-standing monopoly of foreign giants. Its automotive-grade MCUs have fully begun mass production in body control and automotive lighting systems, and numerous projects targeting intelligent cockpits are also under development. Leveraging over ten years of experience in the automotive electronics market and outstanding market performance, KungFu MCUs have been successfully applied in well-known automakers including SAIC Volkswagen, General Motors, Changan, Geely, Dongfeng, and Tiejiangjun.

Figure 10 Overseas Leading Enterprises Have Occupied the Major Market for MCUs in China

Source: Gasgoo, Guotai Junan Securities Research

5.3

Domestic Substitution Relies on Continuous Improvement of the Industrial Ecosystem

The competition in domestic automotive electronics and automotive-grade MCUs mainly exists between overseas leading enterprises and domestic local companies. On the one hand, overseas leading enterprises have long maintained their monopoly position, maintaining cooperative relationships with automakers and having their own IP, occupying the vast majority of market shares at home and abroad, while domestic counterparts mostly lack complete IP. Secondly, the technical barriers to automotive electronics are very high. For domestic local companies, not only high R&D investments are required, but also the integration of upstream and downstream resources and the connection of the industry chain are needed to capture market share. Additionally, foreign enterprises have penetrated various sub-industries for a long time, enabling them to develop based on customer usage scenarios, systems, and software algorithms, continuously lowering development costs. Therefore, the current competition remains quite intense domestically.

It is clear that the construction of the ecosystem has become the focus of domestic MCU companies’ breakthroughs. From the development history of overseas manufacturers, it can be seen that the MCU product series constructed by leading enterprises can number in the hundreds or thousands, providing customers with a full range of product options. This also reveals the breakthrough direction for domestic MCUs—to build a multi-dimensional industrial ecosystem, incorporating internet thinking into the industrial ecosystem, and providing customers with more choices through the establishment of personalized and customized platform MCU product services, striving to meet all needs of a customer with one manufacturer, shorten the industrial chain, reduce production costs, and ultimately achieve breakthroughs. With the blooming of smart vehicles in China, companies that can better leverage local advantages and provide reliable, customized products are expected to gain larger market shares and reshape the competitive landscape.

Table 6 Companies Involved in the Automotive-Grade MCU Field in China

Source: Qimingpian, Guotai Junan Securities Research

6. Main Conclusions

Main Conclusion 1: As the penetration rate of smart vehicles increases, the realization of each in-car function will require complex chipsets and stable algorithm support. MCUs will play a more significant role, and the loading quantity and value of each vehicle will increase simultaneously. In 2019, the domestic MCU market reached 25.6 billion yuan, but the automotive-grade MCU market is entirely occupied by overseas leading enterprises. Domestic companies have achieved partial breakthroughs but still need to invest in R&D and break through technological barriers in high-end products. The domestic automotive-grade MCU industry is still in the introduction phase.

Main Conclusion 2: With support from policies, market demand, technological iterations, and financial backing, the domestic substitution of automotive-grade MCUs is imperative. The competition in domestic automotive electronics and automotive-grade MCUs mainly exists between overseas leading enterprises and local companies, and domestic enterprises are gradually launching automotive-grade 32-bit MCUs to achieve domestic substitution and are gradually achieving mass production. Domestic companies are expected to continue breaking through technological barriers, aligning with international standards, and connecting the industrial ecosystem, reshaping the long-standing monopoly of overseas leading enterprises.

Main Conclusion 3: Companies that can better leverage local market advantages and provide reliable, customized products are expected to gain larger market shares. It is recommended to pay attention to primary market investment opportunities in companies such as BYD Semiconductor, Xinwang Microelectronics, Chipways, Jihai Semiconductor, and Hangshun Chips.

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