Source: Fish and PondNow, there are discussions about TSMC losing a certain license. The semiconductor debate has been ongoing for six or seven years. The U.S. has gone through a lot, and I don’t know what we’ve developed into, but I do know that Huawei phones seem to be available without purchase limits now. I just bought a Pura 70, and it feels quite smooth to use.The global distribution of the semiconductor supply chain is so complex that even the U.S. cannot completely dominate the division of labor in the semiconductor supply chain.Both domestic and foreign media promote the view that without U.S. technology, the global semiconductor supply chain would inevitably collapse.This claim has not been verified because no one has experienced it.A hundred years ago during the Qing Dynasty, we often said that isolationism prevented us from participating in the Industrial Revolution, causing our backwardness…So why is it that when the U.S. begins to isolate itself now, they won’t fall behind?You must admit that about thirty or forty years ago, the semiconductor industry entered a period of rapid development. Before 2015, we indeed did not have the capability to engage in this field. Our industrial foundation, human resource reserves, and global division of labor did not allow us to occupy a dominant position in the semiconductor industry. This is due to historical development reasons. If you want to be a leader in the semiconductor industry now, you should have started your reserves and R&D at least 15 to 20 years ago!Facing a market like China, which has sufficient consumption depth, I believe no country would want to give it up. Without the Chinese market, how much more development space is there for the global semiconductor industry?I’m not talking about technological innovation, but whether there is enough demand to absorb this batch of semiconductor production capacity…We are only restricted by U.S. technology. If Japanese and Korean companies want to avoid losing this huge market and also prevent a strong competitor from emerging, their best approach is to collaborate with the Chinese.We can center ourselves and collaborate with other countries to develop a non-U.S. technology semiconductor supply chain. When this supply chain matures, it will be the moment when U.S. technology is expelled from the global semiconductor supply chain.What the U.S. is doing now is no different from what the Qing Dynasty did.If U.S. technology cannot be tested in the global market, it won’t take long—10 years, and it may become outdated technology…Observing the semiconductor industry chain in recent years, China’s progress is quite evident. However, we must also objectively recognize that the semiconductor industry chain is not built overnight; it is a systematic project. When this ecosystem can self-circulate, the speed of progress will definitely exceed everyone’s expectations… if not for anything else, then just to make money.I suspect that this critical point will be in the next 3 to 5 years. When non-U.S. technology can establish a world-class semiconductor production line, what do you think will happen?We are not lacking much now; the final key elements need to be perfected so that companies in the industry chain can form positive feedback. At that time, I don’t know how Americans will view this technological blockade…Throughout history, technological blockades have almost never succeeded because the diffusion of technology is an inevitable result. What can determine the final pattern is actually demand, not supply…A bold guess: The U.S. technological blockade may very well become a shackle for the advancement of American semiconductor technology. Once this is realized by the elite class in the U.S., it will all be too late…Source: Fish and Pond
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