This article has a total of 1826 words and takes about 3 minutes to read Financial Investment Reporter Xue Lei Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the “Opinions on the Innovative Development of Humanoid Robots” (hereinafter referred to as “Opinions”). The “Opinions” propose that humanoid robots integrate advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, high-end manufacturing, and new materials, and are expected to become a disruptive product following computers, smartphones, and new energy vehicles. It is anticipated that China’s humanoid robots will reach world-class levels by 2027.What impact will the issuance of the “Opinions” have on the development of China’s humanoid robot industry? Lu Hancheng, director of the High-tech Robotics Industry Research Institute, stated in an interview with the Financial Investment Reporter that 2023 is the “first year” for humanoid robots in China. At the early stage of the industry, the issuance of the “Opinions” provides clear direction and goals for the development of new industries and technologies, which is of great significance.
Illustration: Qing Zixiu
Five Tasks Outlined in the “Opinions”
The “Opinions” point out that humanoid robots integrate advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, high-end manufacturing, and new materials, and are expected to become a disruptive product following computers, smartphones, and new energy vehicles, profoundly transforming human production and lifestyle, and reshaping the global industrial development pattern. Currently, humanoid robot technology is accelerating its evolution, becoming a new high ground for technological competition, a new track for future industries, and a new engine for economic development, with great development potential and broad application prospects.
The “Opinions” outline five tasks: In terms of key technology breakthroughs, create the “brain” and “small brain” of humanoid robots, break through key technologies for “limbs”, and improve the technological innovation system. In terms of product cultivation, develop complete machine products, solidify basic component foundations, and promote software innovation. In terms of scene expansion, meet the needs of special fields, create typical manufacturing scenarios, and accelerate promotion in people’s livelihoods and key industries. In terms of ecosystem creation, cultivate high-quality enterprises, improve innovation carriers and open-source environments, and promote industrial agglomeration development. In terms of supporting capabilities, improve the industrial standard system, enhance testing and verification capabilities, and strengthen safety governance capabilities.
The “Opinions” have made strategic deployments based on a three-year planning and five-year outlook. By 2025, an innovative system for humanoid robots will be initially established, with breakthroughs in key technologies such as “brain, small brain, limbs”, ensuring the safe and effective supply of core components. Complete machine products will reach international advanced levels and achieve mass production, demonstrating applications in special, manufacturing, and livelihood service scenarios, exploring effective governance mechanisms and means. Cultivate 2-3 globally influential ecological enterprises and a number of specialized and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, creating 2-3 industrial development clusters, and nurturing new businesses, models, and formats.
By 2027, the technological innovation capability of humanoid robots will be significantly enhanced, forming a safe and reliable industrial chain supply chain system, constructing an internationally competitive industrial ecosystem, and achieving comprehensive strength at world advanced levels. The industry will accelerate its scale development, with more diverse application scenarios, and related products deeply integrated into the real economy, becoming an important new engine for economic growth.
The upstream industrial chain may benefit first Lu Hancheng believes that although humanoid robots are still some distance from mass production, it is undeniable that 2023 is the “first year” for humanoid robots in China. Chinese manufacturers are making the realization of “producing humanoid robots” less distant, with over 10 manufacturers releasing humanoid robot-related products.Since humanoid robots are a high-level form of robots, a typical technological product that integrates multiple disciplines, and also a composite project in the history of human technology, to some extent, it reflects the national technological strength. The issuance of the “Opinions” is of great significance at the early stage of the industry.Lu Hancheng stated that the first beneficiaries will be the high-value segments of the upstream industrial chain, including high-performance motors, reducers, high-strength screws, high-performance controllers, various sensors (visual, tactile, auditory, etc.), dexterous hands, high-energy-density batteries, and AI large models.“From the perspective of various core components, some overlap with existing industrial robots, such as reducers and some motors, but humanoid robots have a more prominent demand for sensor components, intelligent software, and AI large models. In addition, linear actuators are also the first to be applied in humanoid robots. To some extent, China already has a certain industrial supporting foundation, but there are still shortcomings that need to be addressed, such as full-body dynamics control algorithms, high-performance controllers, and high-performance tactile sensors,” Lu Hancheng said.Recently, Open Source Securities released a research report suggesting to pay attention to products such as sensors and actuators mentioned in the “Opinions” and speculative opportunities related to Tesla’s testing and product sampling progress; in terms of product cultivation, the “Opinions” propose three main directions: developing complete machine products, solidifying basic component foundations, and promoting software innovation. Key products and component breakthroughs include: basic version complete machines, functional complete machine sensors, actuators, controllers, and power energy.Financial Investment Reporter noticed that some A-share listed companies are also planning layouts.Intelligent equipment solution company Tianqi Co., Ltd. has previously established a joint venture with UBTECH and expects the delivery time of the first industrial humanoid robot prototype to be no later than the end of December 2023; intelligent manufacturing equipment supplier Junpu Intelligent stated that based on its rich experience in industrial robots and long-term experience in intelligent equipment for automotive parts, it is actively exploring business opportunities in the field of humanoid robot actuators; precision gear supplier Jingzhuan Technology stated that it is currently focusing on joint components for humanoid robot applications and actively participating; harmonic reducer leader Green Harmonic stated that it is advancing humanoid robot projects, but the speed of product commercialization is not that fast.In addition, companies such as Jiangsu Leili, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and Chaojie Co., Ltd. have stated that they are actively laying out the components for humanoid robots.
Capital Will Play an Active Role“The development of new technology industries is not a competition of single factors, but requires continuous investment and collaborative support from multiple factors, such as policies, talent, capital, and enterprises, especially in the early stages of technology industries. The participation of financial capital can enhance the attention and participation in humanoid robots, accelerating the formation of an industrial atmosphere; on the other hand, the participation of financial capital will also provide more sufficient “research and development resources” for humanoid robot companies, assisting in their high-quality and sustainable development. Looking at past trillion-level industries such as computers, smartphones, and new energy vehicles, the presence of financial capital is ubiquitous; at the same time, we can also see the positive role played by financial capital at specific stages of industrial development,” Lu Hancheng said.Lu Hancheng believes that cost reduction depends on the realization and application of scale, and the premise of scale is that the performance of humanoid robots can meet people’s usage expectations. Currently, the application of humanoid robots is still in the exploratory stage. The first stage is the process of meeting product requirements. When humanoid robots have sufficiently “human-like” performance or powerful functionality, their prospects will undoubtedly surpass all current categories of robots.The market’s attention to humanoid robots has also been enthusiastic.According to data from the Forward Economic Research Institute, from 2017 to August 2023, there have been 27 financing events in China’s humanoid robot industry, with investment and financing activity showing a fluctuating trend, peaking in 2018 with 8 events; as of August 24, 2023, there have been 4 financing events in the humanoid robot industry.Goldman Sachs predicts that in the most ideal scenario, the humanoid robot market may reach $154 billion by 2035. Markets and Markets predicts that the humanoid robot market size will grow from $1.8 billion in 2023 to $13.8 billion in 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of up to 50.2%.Angel investor and senior AI expert Guo Tao stated that humanoid robots have numerous application scenarios in the household market, business market, and industrial production market, such as home companionship, education and teaching, medical rehabilitation, and space exploration. Currently, the humanoid robot industry is still in the early exploratory stage, facing issues such as immature core technologies, incomplete industrial chain ecosystems, difficulties in landing application scenarios, and imperfect legal and regulatory standards. In the future, with the development and maturity of AI-related technologies, the intelligence level of humanoid robots will continue to improve, application scenarios will continue to expand, and the overall market size will show exponential growth, with the potential to form a trillion-level market scale.Wang Peng, a researcher at the Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, believes that based on the current trends in technological development and market demand, the future development prospects of humanoid robots are broad. With the continuous advancement of technologies such as artificial intelligence, high-end manufacturing, and new materials, the performance of humanoid robots will continue to improve, and application scenarios will continue to expand. At the same time, as society’s demand for intelligence and automation continues to grow, the market demand for humanoid robots will also continue to expand. However, the development of humanoid robots also faces technical challenges and safety risks, requiring the industry to continuously invest in research and development to ensure sustainable development.
Editor|He Menglu Proofreader|Yuan Gang Reviewer|Yao Yanru
This article is｜Financial Investment Reportjrtzb028(WeChat ID)original article｜
Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited. If you need to reprint, please contact Jin Meier
Reprints must prominently indicate the source and author name at the beginning of the text, and violators will be held accountable.Contact Jin MeierBusiness cooperation: 028-86968491Internet news information service license number: 51120180008