AI Robots Driving the Electric Wave: Accelerating the Second Curve of Power Equipment & Industrial Control - 2025 Annual Strategy Report for Power Grid & Industrial Control

Abstract

Power Grid: Domestic ultra-high voltage and distribution networks are both making efforts, overseas demand enters the second phase of volume increase. 1) Domestic:The main network and distribution network are both planning priorities. Main network ultra-high voltage is expected to accelerate the collection of existing lines next year, state-owned leading companies will report performance elasticity, and the “14th Five-Year Plan” is worth looking forward to – we expect ultra-high voltage investment to increase by more than 50% year-on-year, with approximately 20 new ultra-high voltage direct current lines and more than 15 ultra-high voltage alternating current lines, among which the penetration rate of high-value flexible direct current is optimistic to exceed 50%. Distribution network investment is expected to turn positive in 2023, with 15-20% growth expected in 2025, constructing new distribution systems to meet the demand for distributed energy access; the direction is relatively diverse – primary equipment looks good for expansion (energy-saving transformers), secondary equipment looks good for multi-category accelerated penetration (integration of primary and secondary equipment, specification converters, group control + distributed power prediction, etc.), focusing on new technologies breakthrough from 0 to 1 in direct current distribution, virtual power plants, and flexible interconnection. 2) Overseas: In the past two years, prices have generally risen with volume, as overseas supply of distribution equipment gradually releases, the market is expected to return to a volume increase stage from the second half of 2024 (only the scarce high-voltage power equipment and its components can increase in price), and we remain optimistic about the demand for power equipment driven by AI in the US, main networks, and industry, followed by demand from the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, as the local capacity in the US is expected to weaken the impact of tariffs.

Industrial Control: Domestic orders, inventory, and profitability are all at the bottom, foreign capital destocking in Q2 2025, and next year looks optimistic for the overall industry recovery, while going overseas and humanoid robots also provide long-term highlights for industrial control companies. 1) Demand Side:The industry is still at a relatively low level, with traditional industries performing well in 2024 through indirect overseas sales and trade-ins, and we expect domestic demand to recover in 2025; new energy, which has been a drag, is expected to stabilize in 2025, with Q4 already observing positive CAPEX in lithium batteries, and the decline in photovoltaic energy has also narrowed due to a low base. We expect industrial control demand to turn positive with a growth of 0-3% next year. 2) Supply Side: The trend of domestic substitution continues, while domestic companies are increasing their pace of going overseas, accelerating the establishment of overseas sales, R&D, and manufacturing systems, while also positioning themselves in the core components and assemblies of humanoid robots, which are expected to begin industrialization in 2025 and gradually contribute to performance increments.

Humanoid Robots & AI Electrical Equipment: AI accelerates the empowerment of traditional industries, and the era of embodied intelligence for humanoids is coming, giving rise to investment opportunities in power grids & industrial control. 1) Humanoid Robots:In 2024, domestic and foreign giants are rushing to accelerate the industry, and the T-chain can expect Tesla to release Gen3 and pinpoint suppliers, entering a year of mass production in 2025, with an expected output of 3,000-5,000 units; the NV chain focuses on chip and robot development platforms, paying attention to ecosystem partner opportunities; the HW chain may be in the supply chain cultivation period, and the intelligent selection model is expected to be replicated in humanoids. From a deterministic perspective, at this stage, it is preferable to directly cooperate with leading companies > send samples to Tier 1 > Tier 2 companies with corresponding component layouts. 2) AI Electrical Equipment: AI drives cabinets to evolve to the hundred kW-MW level, with increased power consumption driving technological changes in energy conversion processes, related equipment will see price increases and changes in the market: Energy flow changes from UPS to HVDC direct current distribution, AC-DC large power, which will indirectly cause price increases due to supply-demand tensions in IDC front-end energy infrastructure. Thermal flow shifts from air cooling to cold plate liquid cooling, with long-term trends toward immersion liquid cooling, as overseas leaders accelerate acquisitions of liquid cooling components.

Investment Suggestions:Power Grid recommends Siyuan Electric, Samsung Medical, Pinggao Electric, China West Electric, State Grid Nanrui, Jinpan Technology, Xuji Electric, Haixing Power, Sifang Co., Igor, and Anke Rui, with attention to: Huaming Equipment, Mingyang Electric, and Jinbei Electric. Industrial Control & Humanoid Robots recommend Inovance Technology, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Hongfa Co., Weichuang Electric, and Rese Intelligent, with attention to Beite Technology, Hechuan Technology, Siling Co., Best, Wuzhou Xinchun, and Keli Sensor. AI Electrical Equipment recommends Magmi Tech, with attention to Yingweik, Oulu Tong, Kehua Data, Zhongheng Electric, Weilan Lithium Core, and Gaolan Co.

Risk Warning:Global power grid investment may fall short of expectations, macroeconomic downturns, raw material and freight price increases exceeding expectations, intensified competition, etc.

Main Text

Past Reports:

2024-07-07 In-Depth! 【Dongwu Electric New】 Industrial Control & Power Grid Mid-Term Strategy Report: Energy Transition + Technological Revolution, Global Electrical Equipment Cycle Reemerges

2023-12-30 In-Depth! 【Dongwu Electric New】 Industrial Control Humanoid Future Prelude, Power Equipment Giants Set Sail – Industrial Control & Power Grid Industry 2024 Annual Investment Strategy

2023-06-30 【Dongwu Electric New】 Main Business Awaits Upward Turning Point, Actively Embracing the Second Curve – 2023 Industrial Control & Power Equipment Mid-Term Strategy Report

Scan the QR code to follow Emerging Industries, and get more exciting articles!

AI Robots Driving the Electric Wave: Accelerating the Second Curve of Power Equipment & Industrial Control - 2025 Annual Strategy Report for Power Grid & Industrial Control

Disclaimer

This public subscription account (WeChat ID: Green__Energy) is established by the Electric New Research Team of Dongwu Securities, and is the only subscription account for the research team’s research results.

The information contained in this public account is only for professional investment institutions and is only for timely communication of research views in the context of new media.

This public account is not a platform for the release of research reports from the Electric New Research Team of Dongwu Securities. The content contained is derived from research reports officially published by Dongwu Securities Research Institute or tracking and interpreting published reports. For detailed report content or research information, please refer to the complete report published by Dongwu Securities Research Institute.

The content contained in this public account does not constitute a judgment or investment advice on specific securities at specific prices, at specific times, or specific market performance, and cannot be equated with operational opinions guiding specific investments.The content contained in this public account is for reference only, and recipients should not solely rely on the information in this material to replace their independent judgment, and should make their own investment decisions and bear risks.Dongwu Securities Research Institute and this research team do not assume any responsibility for any losses caused or may be caused by the use of any content contained in this public account.

This public account reserves all legal rights to the content contained.Subscribers are prohibited from copying and reproducing all content (including text, images, video, etc.) published by this public account without written permission. Authorized reproductions must indicate the source as “Dongwu Securities Research Institute” and may not make any misleading references, deletions, or modifications to the content of this public account.

Special Statement: The “Securities and Futures Investor Suitability Management Measures” and “Securities Operating Institutions Investor Suitability Management Implementation Guidelines (Trial)” have been officially implemented since July 1, 2017.The information pushed by this public account in the form of new media is only aimed at professional investors among Dongwu Securities customers, and please do not forward in any form without authorization.If you are not a professional investor among Dongwu Securities customers, to ensure service quality and control investment risks, please unsubscribe from this public account.Please do not subscribe to, receive, or use any push information in this public account.Due to the difficulty of setting access permissions for this public account, we apologize for any inconvenience caused! Thank you for your understanding and cooperation.

Dongwu Securities Investment Rating Standards

Investment ratings are based on analysts’ expectations of the relative benchmark performance of industry or company return potential over the 6 to 12 months following the report release date (the benchmark for the A-share market is the CSI 300 Index, the benchmark for the Hong Kong market is the Hang Seng Index, the benchmark for the US market is the S&P 500 Index, and the benchmark index for the New Third Board is the Third Board Index (for agreement transfer targets) or the Third Board Market-Making Index (for market-making transfer targets), the benchmark index for the Beijing Stock Exchange is the Beizheng 50 Index), as follows:

Company Investment Ratings:

Buy: Expected individual stock price fluctuations relative to the benchmark to exceed 15% in the next 6 months;

Increase: Expected individual stock price fluctuations relative to the benchmark to be between 5% and 15% in the next 6 months;

Neutral: Expected individual stock price fluctuations relative to the benchmark to be between -5% and 5% in the next 6 months;

Reduce: Expected individual stock price fluctuations relative to the benchmark to be between -15% and -5% in the next 6 months;

Sell: Expected individual stock price fluctuations relative to the benchmark to be below -15% in the next 6 months.

Industry Investment Ratings:

Increase: Expected industry index to outperform the benchmark by more than 5% in the next 6 months;

Neutral: Expected industry index relative to the benchmark between -5% and 5% in the next 6 months;

Reduce: Expected industry index to underperform the benchmark by more than 5% in the next 6 months.

We remind you that different securities research institutions use different rating terms and rating standards. We use a relative rating system, indicating recommendations for relative weight of investments. Investors’ decisions to buy or sell securities should fully consider their specific situations, such as specific investment objectives, financial conditions, and specific needs, and fully understand and use the content of this report, and should not view this report as the sole factor in making investment decisions.

AI Robots Driving the Electric Wave: Accelerating the Second Curve of Power Equipment & Industrial Control – 2025 Annual Strategy Report for Power Grid & Industrial Control

Leave a Comment Cancel reply

Related posts

Leave a Comment Cancel reply