The self-controllable policy promotes the trend of domestic substitution, focusing on opportunities in domestic modular power supply.Power supplies are the heart of electronic devices and are widely used in military and communication fields. In the 1980s, foreign power supply companies took the lead in research, forming a technological advantage. In recent years, with the self-controllable policy promoting the trend of domestic substitution, domestic companies are expected to benefit fully. According to Zhiyan Consulting and the China Power Supply Society, the overall scale of China’s power supply market was about 320 billion yuan in 2019 and is expected to reach about 420 billion yuan by 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of about 7.3% from 2020 to 2023. Switching power supplies are mainly used to stabilize output voltage and are widely used in military and communication fields. We suggest that the market pay attention to excellent power supply companies in the domestic substitution process after the normalization of Sino-U.S. trade friction.The trend of equipment electrification is obvious, and the military power supply market has broad space.Currently, a new round of energy system technology revolution represented by electrification is reconstructing the global aerospace, ground, and maritime equipment industry pattern. Taking aviation equipment as an example, fourth-generation aircraft seek stronger situational awareness capabilities, as well as stealth, supersonic cruise, and unconventional maneuverability performance requirements, driving the rapid development of airborne mission systems. As the informatization level of aircraft increases, the demand for high-reliability, small-volume DC/DC converters becomes increasingly urgent. According to Reportlinker, by the end of 2025, the global next-generation military power supply market is expected to grow from $9.29 billion in 2019 to $15.65 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.74% from 2020 to 2025.Communication power supplies are essential for base stations, and the 5G infrastructure brings a broad market.In the domestic market, one of the important application areas of power supplies is communication equipment. In 2019, the net increase of mobile communication base stations nationwide was 1.74 million, reaching a total of 8.41 million. In 2020, the total number of mobile communication base stations reached 9.31 million, with a net increase of 900,000 throughout the year. According to the statistics from the Forward Industry Research Institute, the market size of IDC in China reached 139.8 billion yuan in 2019, and it is expected that the IDC market will maintain a high-speed development trend in the future, and it is estimated that the market size will exceed 250 billion yuan by 2024. We expect that with the further construction of 5G base stations and the increase in the value of single-station power supplies, the scale of communication power supplies in China is expected to grow from 13.7 billion yuan in 2019 to 32 billion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 18% from 2020 to 2024.Domestic companies are expected to break the monopoly of foreign enterprises.We believe that under the background of normalized Sino-U.S. trade friction, the domestic market will further strengthen the awareness of the importance of self-controllable core high-end products in key areas. Core industries are expected to receive policy support, promoting the development of domestic high-tech products. In the future, the domestic market’s demand for domestic products may increase significantly. Newray is a professional power supply supplier with a leading position and brand influence in China, and its main products include modular power supplies and custom power systems. Zhenhua Technology is a leading domestic platform company in military electronics, with its core business being new electronic components, leading in military diodes, military resistors, military tantalum capacitors, etc. Its subsidiary, Zhenhua Micro, is technically advanced in the modular power supply field.
1. Power Supply System: The Carrier of Energy, Downstream Demand Continues to Expand
Power supplies are the heart of electronic devices and are closely related to various sectors of the national economy.Power supplies are devices that convert other forms of energy into electrical energy.Broadly speaking, power supplies also include devices that convert electrical energy of one specification (current, voltage) into electrical energy of another specification (current, voltage). According to the “China Power Supply Industry Yearbook” published by the China Power Supply Society, power supplies can mainly be divided into switching power supplies, UPS power supplies, linear power supplies, inverters, frequency converters, and other power supplies based on product name and principle, covering various sectors of the national economy.Based on the position in the energy conversion process, power supplies can be divided into primary power supplies and secondary power supplies.The relationship between primary and secondary power supplies is relative. Generally speaking, primary power supplies mostly refer to converting grid electricity (220V/370V) into direct current with a nominal value of 48V, where the current is converted from AC to DC (AC/DC), corresponding products are high-power power supplies, etc. Secondary power supplies mostly refer to converting 48V DC into suitable DC for the power equipment at the load end (12V/5V/3.3V, etc.). Secondary power supplies further precisely adjust current and voltage based on the regulation of primary power supplies.Modular power supplies belong to secondary power supplies and are manufactured using optimized circuit and structural design, utilizing advanced processes and packaging technology to form a compact, small, and highly reliable electronic voltage stabilizing power supply.Modular power supplies can be placed outside the integrated circuit or can be directly mounted on the printed circuit board. They are highly integrated power products that emphasize standardized packaging, characterized by being small, thin, and light, generally classified as electronic device products from the user’s perspective. Modular power supplies can transform different input voltage DC into the DC voltage required by load-end electronic devices for user systems or device use.The power supply industry chain mainly includes raw material suppliers, power supply manufacturers, equipment manufacturers, and industry application customers.The upstream of the industry includes raw material suppliers such as circuit boards, magnetic components, electronic components, hardware and structural parts, connectors, etc. Among them, raw material suppliers provide electronic components such as control chips, power devices, transformers, and PCB boards. The downstream of the power supply industry chain mainly consists of equipment manufacturers, which purchase corresponding models and specifications of power supply products based on industry users’ demand for related products, apply them to corresponding electronic devices, and provide technical support and after-sales service for the equipment.The power supply industry in developed countries in Europe and America is relatively mature, while the Chinese market has developed relatively late.With the continuous deepening of international industrial transfer, the ongoing informatization construction in China, and the sustained development of the aerospace, aviation, and military industries, the rapid development of downstream industries has provided strong support for the power supply industry, bringing unprecedented business opportunities to the Chinese power supply market. Domestic power supply companies are mainly distributed in three regions: the Pearl River Delta, mainly Shenzhen, Dongguan, Guangzhou, Zhuhai, and Foshan; the Yangtze River Delta, mainly around Shanghai, Suzhou, and Hangzhou; and the Beijing and surrounding areas; Wuhan, Xi’an, and Chengdu also have a certain distribution. These three regions have the fastest economic development, with both light and heavy industries being relatively developed, and a high level of informatization construction and technological research and development, providing sufficient conditions and convenient locations for the research and development, production, and sales of the technology-intensive power supply industry. The Chinese power supply industry has formed a highly market-oriented state, with a large number of manufacturers producing power supply products, low market concentration, and significant differences in enterprise scale. In recent years, the global power supply market has maintained a steady growth trend.Stable output voltage, switching power supplies are widely used.Switching power supplies are mainly used to stabilize output voltage and are widely used in military and communication fields.Switching power supplies use modern electronic power technology to control the ratio of the switching on and off time to maintain a stable output voltage. They are mainly used in industrial automation control, military equipment, scientific research equipment, LED lighting, communication equipment, power equipment, and medical equipment.Switching power supply research and application began early, and the technology has matured.The research and application of switching power supplies began in the 1950s. In the 1960s, the technology of switching power supplies basically took shape. In the 1980s, the first standardized switching power supply for civilian use was born, and in the mid-1980s, switching power supplies that met global specifications appeared. With the continuous development of upstream device technology and key power electronics technology, switching power supply technology has rapidly developed and grown into an important basic product of the electronic industry.Switching power supplies gradually replaced linear power supplies and became the mainstream voltage stabilizing product.Linear power supply power devices work in a linear state, leading to high power consumption, low conversion efficiency, large heat generation, and large volume. Due to their small size, high current, and high efficiency, switching power supplies gradually replaced linear power supplies as the mainstream category in the power supply market in the early 21st century. During the power-up process, there will be a large surge current from the input to the output. If the output is continuously short-circuited, the short-circuit current through the synchronous continuation tube will accumulate heat and cause chip damage. Therefore, it is necessary to divide the circuit into two or even multiple stages of voltage reduction, and sometimes a linear power supply will be used in the last stage.Different application fields have varying customer demands.Power supplies for railway locomotives have high requirements for vibration resistance and ambient temperature; the aerospace and military fields have extremely high performance requirements for power supply products in extreme working temperatures, severe impact/acceleration, low pressure, and other harsh environments, and require long-term reliability; the communication field has strict requirements for the conversion efficiency and power density of power supply products, etc. Therefore, to meet the requirements of multi-field applications, extreme usage conditions, multiple input ranges, high conversion efficiency, and minimal product volume, companies in the industry need to meet the requirements of power supply products in terms of technical accumulation and design production processes.
Integration and miniaturization are the main development trends of switching power supplies.Integration can make power supply products more compact, reduce lead lengths, lower parasitic parameters, and improve system reliability. In the aviation, aerospace, and military fields, miniaturized and lightweight power products can reduce takeoff and flight weight, increase the space for key functional units, and have advantages in the strict volume, weight design, and parameter allocation of whole products in the aviation and aerospace fields. In the automotive and new energy vehicle fields, miniaturization and lightweighting of power supplies can reduce starting and form weight, increasing effective space inside the vehicle. Currently, switching power supplies have completed the inheritance at the circuit board level, and more integrated power chips are the direction of industry development.The scale of China’s modular power supply market is steadily growing.Modular power supplies are manufactured using advanced processes and packaging technologies to form a compact, small, and highly reliable electronic voltage stabilizing power supply that can be directly installed (mainly for welding) on printed circuit boards. Switching power supply modules modularize the discrete components on switching power supplies, forming smaller-sized and higher power density modular power supplies, whose internal circuits are also switching power supplies. In recent years, the demand for modular power supplies in China has shown a steady upward trend, but the growth rate has shown a fluctuating downward trend. According to the “China Modular Power Supply Industry Development Prospect Forecast and Investment Strategy Planning Analysis Report” released by the Forward Industry Research Institute, the market sales of China’s modular power supply industry were 3.9 billion yuan in 2013, a year-on-year increase of 26.25%. In 2015, the market sales of China’s modular power supply industry exceeded 5 billion yuan, and in 2018, the sales scale of the modular power supply industry in China grew to 7.72 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 14.6% from 2014 to 2018.The power supply market scale shows a steady growth trend, and switching power supplies have the highest share. According to Zhiyan Consulting and the China Power Supply Society, the overall scale of China’s power supply market was about 320 billion yuan in 2019, and it is expected to reach about 420 billion yuan by 2023, with an average compound annual growth rate of about 7.3%. From the perspective of power supply types, the structure of the power supply market has changed in recent years. In 2015, switching power supplies accounted for 40% of China’s power supply market, while the corresponding proportion rose to 58% in 2018. With the improvement of electronic technology, switching power supplies have advantages over traditional linear power supplies in terms of energy consumption and safety, thus gradually becoming mainstream.
2. Dual-track Boosted by Military and Civilian, High Prosperity in Downstream Power Supply
The military power supply market is expanding, and the trend of equipment electrification is obvious.There is a large gap between Chinese and American models, and they are in a critical period of upgrading.Currently, China’s military aircraft are in a critical period of upgrading, with most existing old models expected to be retired in the next ten years. According to “World Air Forces 2021”, China had 484 J-7 and J-8 second-generation fighter jets, 550 J-10 and J-11 third-generation fighters, and 19 J-20 series fourth-generation fighters in 2020. The majority of U.S. active fighter jets are third-generation, supplemented by a certain number of fourth-generation fighters, with future orders also mainly for fourth-generation aircraft. The structure and number of China’s active fighter jets differ significantly from those of world air power countries, with a strong demand for upgrades and replacements. According to “World Air Force 2021”, from the perspective of the composition of combat aircraft, the U.S. active fighter jets have achieved full third-generation and above, and are accelerating the deployment of fourth-generation fighters such as the F-22 and F-35, with 294 active fourth-generation fighters, accounting for as much as 19%. The scale and quantity of China’s third-generation and fourth-generation fighter jets still lag behind those of world air power countries. As of 2020, China still had nearly 500 second-generation fighter jets, accounting for 46%. As the military accelerates the upgrading and replacement of equipment, development opportunities arise for the military power supply industry.The trend of battlefield electrification is obvious, providing demand for the power supply industry.Currently, a new round of energy system technology revolution represented by electrification is reconstructing the global aerospace, ground, and maritime equipment industry pattern. In the development process of modern weapon equipment, the application of advanced mission systems and weapon systems has put forward very high requirements for equipment energy generation, storage, and management. Taking aviation equipment as an example, with the development of multi-electric technology, the electrification level of aviation equipment has significantly improved, with substantial progress in grid capacity, energy conversion efficiency, power density, and comprehensive control capabilities, effectively ensuring the effectiveness of mission systems. As the electrification level of battlefields in China continues to increase, it will provide demand support for the continuous growth of the military power supply industry.The trend of developing integrated avionics systems is obvious.Taking aviation equipment as an example, fourth-generation aircraft seek stronger situational awareness capabilities, as well as stealth, supersonic cruise, and unconventional maneuverability performance requirements, driving the rapid development of airborne mission systems. The F-22 adopts an integrated avionics system based on the “Gemstone Pillar” program, while the F-35 further develops RF integration, with a large number of high-power electronic devices on board. In the future, the application and effectiveness of advanced missions and weapon systems will require electrification technology to provide foundational support.Foreign aircraft power supply systems have undergone a development process from low-voltage DC to constant-frequency AC, and there are currently two trends: one represented by large civil aircraft such as the Boeing 787 and A380, which use variable frequency AC power supply systems; the other is represented by fourth-generation fighters such as the F-22 and F-35, which use high-voltage DC power supply systems.With the increasing informatization level of aircraft, the demand for high-reliability, small-volume DC/DC converters is becoming increasingly urgent.For onboard power supply systems, overvoltage or undervoltage surges may randomly occur, causing traditional DC/DC converters to output abnormally or even burn out, severely impacting the reliability of power supply systems. Onboard application environments urgently require DC/DC converters that can stably operate directly in surge environments.Electrification demand for maritime equipment is increasing.With the introduction of advanced mission systems and weapon system technologies, the power demand of vessels has surged, significantly increasing the demand for power system capacity and stability. The U.S. Navy is advancing research on modular, scalable intermediate power systems aimed at directed energy weapons and other new loads to provide power for high-energy mission systems while protecting energy systems and other platform systems from the pulses generated by mission systems. At the same time, energy repositories can support energy management, load balancing, and emergency power supply for vessel platforms.According to Reportlinker, by the end of 2025, the global next-generation military power supply market is expected to grow from $9.29 billion in 2019 to $15.65 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.74%.
Communication power supplies are essential for base stations, and the 5G infrastructure brings a broad market.In the domestic market, one of the important application areas of power supplies is communication equipment. They are mainly used to provide power assurance for base station communication equipment, optical communication network equipment, broadband communication equipment, program-controlled and network switches, environmental and monitoring equipment, etc.Generally, mobile communication scenarios mainly use -48V low-voltage DC power supplies, which can be further divided into cabinet-type (large system capacity, installable indoors and outdoors), embedded (smaller system capacity, deployed separately or installed in integrated cabinets), and wall-mounted (small system capacity, used for deployment at the antenna feed end) based on system capacity. Data center scenarios mainly use AC uninterruptible power supplies (UPS) and high-voltage DC (HVDC) power supplies. Whether it is -48V low-voltage DC power supplies, UPS, or HVDC, there are two product forms: combined and discrete, among which combined power supplies output multiple voltages, while discrete power supplies output single voltage, and the technical difficulty is higher for the latter.The investment scale in communication fixed assets such as communication equipment largely reflects the consumption structure of power supplies.According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s “Statistical Bulletin of the Communication Industry”, in 2019, the net increase of mobile communication base stations nationwide was 1.74 million, reaching a total of 8.41 million.In 2020, the total number of mobile communication base stations reached 9.31 million, with a net increase of 900,000 throughout the year.Among them, the total number of 4G base stations reached 5.75 million, achieving deep coverage in urban areas. The construction of the 5G network is steadily advancing, with more than 600,000 newly built 5G base stations, and the total number of operational 5G base stations exceeding 718,000, of which China Telecom (0728 HK) and China Unicom (600050 CH) jointly built and shared more than 330,000 5G base stations. The 5G network has covered all cities at the prefecture level and key counties across the country. At the same time, according to the “China Power Supply Industry Yearbook 2020”, the market size of communication power supplies reached 13.7 billion yuan in 2019, a year-on-year increase of 7.03%.5G sites require higher reliability, and backup power becomes necessary. The 5G network is mainly applied in mobile payments, smart cities, virtual societies, VR/AR, unmanned driving, artificial intelligence, and 4K and other “Internet of Everything” services, and the impact of network disconnection is unbearable, putting unprecedented pressure on communication assurance.Therefore, reliable backup power supplies for base stations must be considered in base station construction. Benefiting from 5G construction, the IDC (Internet Data Center) industry opens up new growth poles.According to the Forward Industry Research Institute’s statistics, the market size of IDC in China reached 139.8 billion yuan in 2019, and it is expected that the IDC market will maintain a high-speed development trend in the future. According to the growth trend of the industry from 2014 to 2018, it is expected that the market size of IDC in China will exceed 250 billion yuan by 2024. The growth is mainly driven by the power management demand from data center rooms. The power system parameters of 5G base stations’ AAU have higher requirements, and the proportion of power systems in the value of a single base station has increased. At the same time, the construction of 5G small base stations will also drive the stable growth of the communication power supply market on the operator side; on the data center side, the power distribution systems in high-performance computing clusters will continue to benefit from the growth of the cloud service market and the technology upgrade trend brought about by IDC’s energy-saving requirements.
In estimating the market space for 5G power supplies, we assume that in 2019, the market size of communication power supplies was 13.7 billion yuan, and find that the proportion of communication power supplies in the IDC industry was 9.8%. At the same time, considering the need for higher input power demand for 5G base stations if expanded based on the existing -48V switching power supply solution, more rectifier modules will be required, and the value of a single station will be higher. According to the calculation of the compound annual growth rate of about 5% from 2020 to 2024 for the proportion of communication power supplies in the total IDC, the scale of communication power supplies in China is expected to reach 32 billion yuan by 2024. The compound annual growth rate of the communication power supply market in China from 2020 to 2024 is expected to reach 18%.
3. Overseas Giants Dominate the Power Supply Market, Domestic Enterprises Expected to Gradually Break Through
Overseas companies have a first-mover advantage, while domestic leaders are catching up.Foreign countries took the lead in research, forming a technological advantage.The research on switching power supplies originated in the early 1950s, when NASA developed switching power supply technology with the goal of miniaturization and lightweighting for electronic systems on rockets. Foreign switching power supply technology has gradually developed in two directions: first, achieving integration of the control of switching power supplies. In 1997, the first pulse width modulation (PWM) controller integrated circuit was developed abroad, with companies like Motorola (MMI US), Silicon General (unlisted), and Unitorde (unlisted) successively launching a batch of PWM and PFM chips. Secondly, it has achieved the single-chip integration of medium and small power switching power supplies. In the late 1980s, STMicroelectronics first launched a series of single-chip switching power supply regulators, and in the early 1990s, Power Integrations (PW US) successfully developed three-terminal isolated PWM-type single-chip switching power supply converters (AC/AD), further promoting the development of switching power supplies.Domestic research started late, and the power supply product market is fragmented.Compared to abroad, domestic research on switching power supply technology started relatively late, and the technology is relatively backward, basically originating in the late 1970s and early 1980s. At that time, switching power supply technology was introduced and only applied in some research institutes and universities, remaining at the experimental development and teaching stage until the mid-1980s, when switching power supply products gradually began to be promoted and applied. The early Chinese power supply market showed an extensive development trend, with low barriers to entry for low-end power supply products and many industry participants.With the normalization of Sino-U.S. trade friction, the self-controllable policy promotes the trend of domestic substitution.In special fields with high requirements for product reliability and special performance, foreign manufacturers previously occupied a certain share, such as Vicor (VICR US) and Interpoint (CR US). According to Vicor’s financial report, China is the company’s largest overseas market, with sales revenue in the China region of $108.92 million, $58.12 million, and $93.12 million in 2018, 2019, and 2020, respectively, accounting for 37.4%, 22.1%, and 31.4% of revenue. The sales revenue in 2019 decreased by 46.64% compared to 2018, partly due to restrictions on exports caused by the Sino-U.S. trade war, and also due to the government’s incentives and support for domestic enterprises under the guidance of the “Made in China 2025” goal, putting foreign manufacturers at a disadvantage in competition. We believe that under the background of normalized Sino-U.S. trade friction, the domestic market will further strengthen the awareness of the importance of self-controllable core high-end products in key areas, and core industries are expected to receive further policy support, promoting the development of domestic high-tech products. In the future, the domestic market’s demand for domestic products may significantly increase. In high-performance power supplies, especially in key military fields, the proportion of domestically produced power supplies is expected to further increase, creating a large-scale domestic substitution space.
In high-end products, imported high-end power supply products are widely used in domestic commercial aircraft such as ARJ21 and C919. We believe that domestic leading enterprises with scale advantages and high R&D investment will gain an advantage in capturing high-end power supply product shares.Domestic enterprises are increasing R&D, and product technology is gradually aligning with international standards.With the mass production of high-power high-density products, smaller-sized components will be widely used. Taking Newray, a leading military modular power supply company, as an example, the company maintains a high proportion of R&D investment in power supply products and has developed multiple series of modular power supplies, custom power supplies for aerospace, mobile base station power supplies for 5G, high-efficiency large-power power supplies and systems, and special power supplies for railways and electricity. The isolation DC-DC modular power supply products are continuously optimized, with the highest efficiency of DSM products reaching 93%. Compared to Vicor’s efficiency of up to 97% and a tiny package size of 22.00 x 16.50 x 6.73mm, Newray has future breakthroughs and innovation space in high-efficiency technology, high power density technology, and high reliability technology.Domestic enterprises are forming healthy competition, and the 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to accelerate import substitution.The competition among domestic modular power supply enterprises is fierce, and the industry concentration is expected to increase.Modular power supplies are divided into microcircuit power modules and microelectronic power modules, among which one form of microelectronics is thick film power supplies. China’s power supply industry started relatively late, and domestic manufacturers are in a relatively backward technological state. However, the military industry has high reliability and safety requirements for power supply products, and the market has been mainly occupied by international manufacturers. With China’s continued significant investment in the military industry, the domestic military market’s procurement share for local power supply manufacturers has been increasing year by year, gradually reducing dependence on foreign manufacturers, thus enhancing the safety of military products. Therefore, domestic power supply companies’ competitiveness in the aerospace, aviation, and military fields continues to strengthen. Major domestic suppliers include Newray, CETC 43, CETC 24, Zhenhua Micro (a subsidiary of Zhenhua Technology), Sichuan Shenghua, Shanghai Juntao, Huayao Electronics, etc.In terms of products, in the microcircuit power module field, Newray is a professional power supply supplier with a leading position and brand influence in China.The company’s main products include modular power supplies, custom power supplies, and large-power power supplies and systems, widely used in communication and data centers, aerospace and shipping, railways and electricity, industrial control, and new energy fields. In the communication field, domestic customers who have cooperated with the company for many years include Datang Mobile (unlisted) and Fiberhome Communication (600498 CH), while foreign customers include Alcatel-Lucent (unlisted), Nokia (NOK US), and Samsung Electronics (SMSN US); in addition, the company has tracked the European and North American markets for many years and opened up foreign markets through overseas customers, further expanding its market share in the communication field. Due to the rapid changes in the communication field and the fast-changing customer demands, power supply manufacturers are required to respond quickly. Through recent years of development, Newray has become a first-class domestic communication power supply supplier and has gained recognition from domestic and foreign manufacturers through the high cost-performance ratio of its products. In the aerospace and military fields, the quality of the company’s modular power supplies and custom power supplies has been recognized by customers, making it an important power supply supplier in this field. Typical applications of the company’s products include providing power supply products for China’s manned space engineering.In the thick film hybrid integrated circuit field, CETC 43 and CETC 24 have a long history, strong technical strength, and significant comprehensive advantages.
As the reform of China’s military procurement system continues to deepen, more and more private enterprises will enter the military products market.The competition in the domestic power module industry is quite fierce, with a large influx of new power supply manufacturers and customers’ increasing pursuit of cost-performance ratios for power supply products accelerating the “white-hot” product price war. The merger and acquisition wars among enterprises are also escalating, with many traditional power module companies being acquired or merged, and the industry undergoing constant “reshuffling” and reconstruction. Internationally, international modular power supply multinational companies are establishing joint ventures and controlling subsidiaries in other countries through investment mergers and restructuring to expand their business scope and seize market share by utilizing the sales channels of their original companies, reducing their market expansion costs. Domestically, Chinese modular power supply companies tend to enter the downstream military field through mergers and acquisitions.
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